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Football

Why I Don’t Watch the NFL Anymore

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The NFL ain’t what it used to be.

There are plenty of reasons why I don’t watch the NFL anymore. Some of them are purely selfish reasons (my team stinks and I’m struggling to care about them…go Jets). I can’t say I completely care for how Fantasy sports changed my perspective of the NFL. It was fun in college I suppose, but rooting for individual stats over whether a team wins or loses took away something over time for me. Daily Fantasy Sports only made that perception for me worse. But none of that stuff really mattered in the long run for my decision to stop watching the NFL. Neither has the protesting debate that consumes the NFL now. While that topic is a whole other article, players kneeling during the National Anthem is quite low in regards to me watching the NFL as there are far more pressing issues (and reasons not to watch) facing the NFL.

The first event that made me think twice about the NFL was when Ray Rice punched his finance Janay Palmer in the face…and the NFL gave him a two game suspension because “they didn’t see the video” or whatever their excuse was at the time. A week later, Adrian Peterson was indicted for beating his son with a switch as a form of discipline. NFL fucked that up too. There was also Greg Hardy’s situation, NFL didn’t even initially suspend him. While I always knew in the back of my mind the NFL and their owners didn’t really give a shit about their players, just what they do on the field.

You’d think this would have turned everyone against Peterson…

Which brings me to the real point of the article. Hypocritical as it may seem, I didn’t just turn off the TV when a NFL game was on because of what I just wrote in the prior paragraph. I still talked about the NFL with friends. I still played on Draftkings. I did all that stuff last year. This has been something that’s been building over time for me. And while it started specifically with the NFL in regards to Ray Rice, my current concerns with the NFL really began with an event that had nothing to do with the NFL.

It all started for me when professional wrestler Chris Benoit killed his wife and family.

As I’ve gotten older, I guess extreme violence directed toward the head has started to make me feel bad for what I’m watching. In Bill Simmons’ most recent article he talked about how he still watched boxing even after it seemed clear Muhammad Ali suffered brain damage because of the sport. I guess it was that with me and professional wrestling. Plenty of professional wrestlers had died at abnormally young ages, and some of them due to some sort of depression (The Renegade, Mike Awesome, Chris Kanyon, Andrew Martin, Axl Rotten, Balls Mahoney just to name six quick ones, three of which were confirmed to have what I will mention in the next sentence). But none of them really hit hard as the Chris Benoit tragedy. It was later revealed Chris Benoit had severe chronic traumatic encephalopathy. This was in 2007.

Chairshots like this aren’t allowed in WWE anymore, and for good reason…

It took me years to understand why WWE changed their product and promotes a much safer style than it did in the late 90s/early 2000s. It’s a reason I’m still okay with following and watching today.

It’s not to say the NFL hasn’t made changes to make the game safer. Only those changes aren’t enough. And while NFL players are practically killing themselves on the field for (non-guaranteed) contracts, the NFL is making billions of dollars off of these players. Before I get the argument that “the players know what they are getting into”, I would counter that no they don’t and that’s not a good argument to make anyway. That, and the biggest reason I’m not watching, the NFL is trying to hide the fact that a diagnosis for CTE is likely for their players.

The biggest thing that stuck in my mind wasn’t even a factual event. It was the movie Concussion that came out in 2015 which detailed the work on CTE that was done by Dr. Bennet Omali. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure the film isn’t 100% accurate. But it opened my eyes as something I felt like I needed to look into. Dave Duerson and Junior Seau both killed themselves and were found to have CTE in their brain. There was Jovan Belcher, the Kansas City Chiefs player who killed his girlfriend, showed up at the Chiefs practice facility and killed himself. He had CTE too. What about college player Owen Thomas, a 21 year old who committed suicide? CTE there too.

Not surprisingly, the film didn’t get a lot of hype from the NFL

What about, overshadowed in all this kneeling for the flag stuff, what about the revelation that Aaron Hernandez what found to have Stage 3 CTE on September 21?

The Journal of the American Medical Association revealed that in 111 former NFL player brains that were tested, 110 had CTE. 110!

And the NFL doesn’t care. Their concussion lawsuit settlement was ridiculous (and will be rendered moot once the next thing I mention becomes true). Before 2016, the NFL downplayed the connection between CTE and football (read up on Dr. Elliot Pellman).

CTE isn’t covered in that concussion settlement. This is because CTE can’t be diagnosed until a person is dead. And it looks like that’s about to change. Boston University has said they’ve potentially found a way to diagnose CTE in people that are living. The NFL can’t hide it now. American football, a game that’s already changed drastically for safety changes will soon not even closely resemble the game we all once watched and enjoyed. Bill Simmons wrote it best:

   “And there’s no way to stop it. You can’t change football. You can dump kickoffs and punts. You can eject anyone for a helmet-to-helmet hit. You can keep cutting the number of practices. You can dump the preseason. But you can’t rewire trained missiles going 20 miles per hour. It’s not a contact sport; it’s a collision sport.

   Advertisers have the luxury of deciding, “Things are changing … instead of doing A, B, and C, we have to start doing X, Y, and Z.” Football owners don’t have that luxury. Even worse, they don’t want to change. They want everything to stay EXACTLY THE SAME. Collectively, they’ve made tens of billions of dollars the old way. They don’t want a new way.

   That’s why they leveraged the stunningly short length of the average NFL career — not once but twice — to force players to accept unfavorable collective bargaining agreements. They buried concussion research until they couldn’t bury it anymore, even bullying ESPN from participating in Frontline’s concussion special. They stifled individual expression until NBA stars became more popular and recognizable than NFL stars, forcing them to begrudgingly (and awkwardly) change course. They effectively blackballed Colin Kaepernick. And when a president who many of them supported — with their money — threatened their business last weekend, they chose to unite with their players for a few hours. Like they give a shit.”

Sure, I’ll be a bit of a hypocrite. I’ll probably watch the Super Bowl. It’ll still look up some scores. See what players are doing well. But as time moves on the NFL will probably become a distant memory for me. I just can’t get past players wrecking their entire lives just to provide me some entertainment for a few hours every Sunday. And in case this didn’t make you think, don’t forget what Davante Adams looked like this last Thursday night. One day a player is going to die on the field. Let’s hope that’s not what it takes to change everything like it did for WWE.

Football

Super Bowl LI Prediction

We’re 5-5 heading into Super Bowl 51. This game means everything in regards to finishing with a over .500 record!

This also may go down as one of the all-time great Super Bowls…

Super Bowl 51: Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)

There are so many different directions this game could go in.

Elite offense vs. elite offense. Hungry first timers against a team that’s made seven of the last sixteen Superbowls with the same Head Coach/QB combo. Battle of MVP candidate QBs. New England’s D vs. an unstoppable WR.

Here’s what matters. The Matt Ryan led Atlanta Falcons are unstoppable on offense. No matter what double teams New England throws at Julio Jones he’s going to get his catches and his yards. That, combined with the Falcons running game combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman means the Falcons are getting their points when they have the ball.

But that’s the key. They need to have the ball. In a similar strategy that I thought Dallas would beat Green Bay with, New England can run the ball down the weak (we’ll get to that in a second) Falcons run defense and keep Atlanta off the field. And guess what, Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to score their points too. The Falcons defense has improved according to DVOA over the second half of the regular season, but it isn’t elite. They did bottle up Aaron Rodgers last week though. The run defense ranked dead last in DVOA though (for all you gambling people out there, LaGarrette Blount is a sneaky Super Bowl MVP candidate), and that’s going to be tough to overcome. Also, if you just consider Tom Brady’s 12 games in the regular season, New England’s offense was ranked above Atlanta’s.

I’ll make the call that this becomes the first ever Super Bowl that goes to overtime. But after making the mistake last week, I won’t pick against the Patriots in this situation.

Patriots 35, Falcons 32 (OT)

Football

2017 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

2-2 last week (17-9 all-time). That’s what I get for believing in some Giants miracle and not believing in Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

At first I was all ready to take the Seahawks under my “Matt Ryan has always been subpar in the playoffs” + “Seattle has the experience factor in their favor”. But I had to change my mind here for a few reasons.

One, I have to give Matt Ryan his due. He finally played like the quarterback everyone has said he’s been over the past few years. He, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman have run an incredible offense here. If this were the Seahawks of a few years ago I’d say their defense could take Atlanta down…but this isn’t the same defense. I also don’t completely buy the Seahawks at this point. Yeah, them beating a banged up Lions team is no surprise, but the Falcons are a different story. Then again Seattle did down New England on the road back in November, so I might be underselling them.

You know what kind of teams Seattle reminds me of though? Those dynasty teams that are in their last few years where they are considered a threat by name, but they are probably losing to the hot new team. My favorite examples are the 97 Cowboys who dropped a Divisional Round game to the 2nd year Carolina Panthers and the 98 49ers, who lost to the Chris Chandler-Jamal Anderson Falcons. Their runs were just over. Just like Seattle’s probably is.

Plus maybe it was all Mike Smith’s fault.

Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

What is there to say really? You know that the Patriots beat the Texans 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at Quarterback, right?

Patriots 40, Texans 7

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)

I’m ready to pick against Rodgers again! There’s a little too much of “omg we underrated Aaron Rodgers he’s gonna tear through the players” and we forget the Giants were a bit shaky all year. Plus, Dallas has the best weapon possible against Rodgers: Ezekiel Elliott moving the chains and creating long, time killing drives. Aaron Rodgers can’t beat you when he’s on the bench. Do we really think this Packer defense is slowing down Elliott?

Cowboys 20, Packers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Andy Reid sure knows how to put together great regular seasons. I just can’t bring myself to believe in the Chiefs. Weather it’s the coach (Reid), the playoff history (so many disappointing Chiefs losses, many of them when they had a first round bye), the QB (Alex Smith is good and all, but never going to scare you) I just can’t do it. I correctly predicted three years ago that Andrew Luck would beat them and he did. I like this Steelers team a lot. They’re on fire. They took care of business last week. They have good DVOA ratings. They seem superior in every way. I just think they’re better. Only thing that can stop Big Ben and co. is the weather. Even then, is that going to do Kansas City any favors?

Steelers 24, Chiefs 17

 

 

Football

2017 NFL Wildcard Predictions

Ok, Wildcard predictions! We went 9-2 two years ago and 6-5 last year for a total of 15-7. Let’s have a good year!

Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

What a depressing game. The Raiders looked primed for at minimum a showdown with the Patriots in these playoffs and maybe a Super Bowl run. Derek Carr then breaks his leg and now we’re here. Connor Cook inherits a solid running game, a great offensive line and good weapons at WR. On the flip side, this is his first NFL start ever. It’ll probably be bad…but who knows who what we’ll get!

But we know what we’re getting with Brock Osweiler. He stinks. And there isn’t much else in Houston to make me think they are going to really do anything against Oakland. Houston is ranked 29th in total DVOA, 30th in offense. Their defense is still considered Top 10, but when they are probably scoring three points it won’t matter.

Raiders 13, Texans 3

Detroit Lions (9-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Sure, Seattle isn’t the same team they’ve been over the past few years and Detroit looked good this year, but this has a big Russell Wilson game all over it. Speaking of DVOA, Detroit’s defense ranked dead last. Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the same since his finger injury either. There’s just nothing here to make me think Detroit is going to win a shootout against the Seahawks in Seattle. And the Seahawks will be scoring big points.

Seahawks 37, Lions 17

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Miami’s an old school team that can run the ball and pound away at a defense. And they beat Pittsburgh in October doing just that as Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards. I don’t think the Matt Moore starting deal is going to hurt Miami that much…I mean it’s not ideal but it isn’t like Ryan Tannehill is some great QB. Miami finally seems to have a good direction under new Head Coach Adam Gase. There’s a lot to like there.

But I am taking the Steelers. They looked great down the stretch (against subpar competition but still) and do have a couple of impressive wins this season. The Steelers feel like a good team hitting their stride. Sure, momentum isn’t everything, especially when you’re beating up on the Browns, but on paper they are the better team and have experience. It’ll be close though.

Steelers 22, Dolphins 21

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Everyone is counting out the Giants this post-season. A lot of people off the Eli Manning train. Aaron Rodgers is hot and just led the Packers to what looked to be an unlikely division title. Where have I seen this script before?

The Giants should not be slept on. Their defense is great and probably a lot better off to play in a cold weather game than the Packers offense is. What am I missing? We’ve seen this twice before.

And there’s this. Mid-season, there was all this talk about how dysfunctional the Packers were and how Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a great leader. The Packers then reel off six straight wins, one of them quite impressive against the Seahawks…but otherwise against teams with real weaknesses the Packers could exploit (Jaguars, Texans and Bears are all bad, we went over Detroit’s terrible D and home against a disappointing Vikings team). Not really buying it. Not sure I should be buying the Giants either, but again, I feel like I’ve seen this script before.

Giants 27, Packers 17

 

 

Football

2016 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2016 NFL Season! I wrote last year how parity had been escaping the NFL over the years, and no worries, that once again was the case. The Denver Broncos, a top 8 team for five straight years now (meaning they lost in the Divisional Round or better), took home a SuperBowl ring behind a vaunted defense. The Carolina Panthers, who I selected to win the NFC South (but I didn’t have the guts to pick them for the SuperBowl), continued to improve after winning their third straight division title. The Patriots were a top 4 team once again for the fifth straight year. Roger Goodell though, seems to be doing everything in his power to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

With that being said…RDT’s 2016 NFL Predictions.

2016eli

NFC East
Giants: 9-7 (4th)
Eagles: 8-8
Redskins: 5-11
Cowboys: 5-11

I feel like I pick the Giants every year for this division. I couldn’t even remember who won it last year (Washington). The Giants still have the steadiest presence as Quarterback in Eli Manning. Eli’s a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde QB at this point, either he’s great or he’s wildly inconsistent. He has Odell Beckham Jr. to throw to, so I’m sure he’ll be fine. I’m sure there are a lot of Kirk Cousins fans out there and he did play well last season. He’s not someone I’m willing to back and their defense is pretty bad. The Eagles have a rookie at QB and nothing else truly inspiring as they recover from the Chip Kelly era. Dallas just dropped lost Tony Romo again for half the season and I think we’re finished with Romo being a difference making QB. What a bad division overall.

2016rodgers
NFC North
Packers: 12-4 (1st)
Lions: 9-7 (6th)
Vikings: 8-8
Bears: 3-13

Kind of a shame for the Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater seemed poised to break out after improving in most statistical categories last season but now he’s done for 2016 and probably part of 2017 too. Adrian Peterson should be regressing, but who knows really as he’s a physical freak. Unfortunately now the Vikings are going to have Sam Bradford at the helm, who’s pretty much known for winning 7 games in a season. The Packers should take the division with ease this year, although Detroit might be able to make it interesting as that’s a team that underperforms year in and year out. The Chicago Bears meanwhile just need to start over.

Super Bowl Football
NFC South
Panthers: 12-4 (2nd)
Falcons: 8-8
Buccaneers: 7-9
Saints: 7-9

The NFC South is full of incomplete teams. I still need to see an improved Saints defense (now that Ryan is gone it should happen) before I believe it. Buccaneers can be one year away if Winston develops. Matt Ryan continues to be perhaps the most overrated quarterback in football, posting big yardage with big attempts, a meager TD:INT ratio and a below average passer rating despite having Julio Jones to throw to. The only team to believe in here is The Panthers. I’m all in on “Riverboat” Ron and Cam Newton. I feel like I somehow doubted them last year when I made them 10-6 to win the South even though I was the only one it seemed who actually picked them to do so.

2016fitz
NFC West
Cardinals: 11-5 (3rd)
Seahawks: 10-6 (5th)
Rams: 4-12
49ers: 4-12

Seattle did regress last year, and they may again this year but they are still in the Superbowl hunt. A lot will bank on if Thomas Rawls can make the plays Marshawn Lynch made for Seattle in their peak years. I totally counted out the Cardinals as a fluke last year and was wrong…but their record here is more indicative of playing in the same division as the Rams and 49ers than my confidence in them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fell off. I don’t think Los Angeles cares about football and while the Rams have been on that outside looking in level for years now, I don’t think they are breaking in unless Goff plays and is the real deal immediately. The 49ers have been a disaster since Harbaugh left and their biggest story is Kaepernick and the National Anthem, which isn’t a great sign.

2016brady
AFC East
Patriots: 10-6 (4th)
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 6-10
Jets: 5-11

I still have New England winning the AFC East although it should be a bit of a competition with Buffalo. A lot depends on how New England starts without Brady. The Bills will hang around…but there isn’t much to indicate that this year will be much different than the past two. Miami’s also a “just there” team and their running situation might make Tannenhill someone who has to throw a lot, which isn’t good. The Jets had a really easy schedule to start last year and did nothing with that, this year is a lot worse. Jets need to get past Ryan Fitzpatrick ASAP.

2016bigben
AFC North
Steelers: 11-5 (2nd)
Bengals: 11-5 (5th)
Ravens: 9-7
Browns: 3-13

The Steelers were a few plays away from perhaps making their own Super Bowl run last season and as long as Ben Roethlisberger is around they will usually be 8-8 or better. The Bengals may have been robbed of their own Super Bowl run thanks to Pacman Jones and Vontaze Burfict giving Landry Jones an easy 30 years. While I have no faith in Marvin Lewis as a head coach, there is no reason to think a healthy Andy Dalton won’t at least guarantee them another playoff berth. The Ravens should be better than last year too…although there are a lot of depth problems there (which really showed on offense last year). The Browns are just a mess.

2016luck
AFC South
Colts: 10-6 (3rd)
Jaguars: 9-7
Titans: 8-8
Texans: 6-10

The AFC South should be quite a fun division to follow. Will Andrew the Giant reclaim his throne as the best young passer in football? Probably depends what his team can do around him. The Jaguars look improved all around and they may steal the division. There is a lot of Blake Bortles hype out there. Speaking of hype, if Marcus Mariota continues to develop and DeMarco Murray regains his form the Titans could storm through the division too. I’m not a fan of Brock Osweiler though. The fact he couldn’t keep his job over probably the worst starting QB in the league in Peyton Manning last year is a bad sign all around.  Kudos for the Texans for taking a shot as their QB situation was a disaster last year though. I’m worried about J.J. Watt’s injuries too.

2016andyreid
AFC West
Chiefs: 12-4 (1st)
Broncos: 9-7 (6th)
Raiders: 9-7
Chargers: 7-9

The Chiefs still rank as a stereotypical Andy Reid team to me. So once again they should lose early in the playoffs despite giving them the #1 seed here. I’d rather have Denver’s amazing defense with no quarterback than Oakland’s young, high upside offense. San Diego probably needs to hit the reset button at this point.

Superbowl feels wide open to me. Let’s go with Green Bay finally getting back there against a returning to form Pittsburgh Steeler team, with the Packers beating them once again.

 

 

Football

RDT’s 2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions!

Well we went 2-2 last week. Cinnicinate destructed and it looks like I underestimated Green Bay (or overestimated Kirk Cousins). Still, all the road teams winning last week was a bit crazy.

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

As good as the Chiefs have been I don’t see them winning this one.

If you want to talk yourself into Kansas City, you need to think the Patriots aren’t as good as they seemed (they faltered a bit down the stretch), Gronk’s injuries are serious (he was just in the hospital), the return of Julian Edelman won’t matter that much (hard to see) and Bill Belichick won’t outcoach Andy Reid (okay…). That’s a lot to hope for.

Is an offense with Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, Travis Kelce and an injured Jeremy Maclin really going to beat this Patriots team in New England? I’d be quite surprised.

Patriots 24, Chiefs 10

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (13-3)

It’s easy to get back on the Green Bay Packer bandwagon after they finally clicked against Washington. The fact of the matter is the Arizona Cardinals are a lot better than the Packers. Aaron Rodgers feels like a one man show out there and let’s be clear, the Cardinals are great. Arizona scored 38 or more points six times this season. One of those was against Green Bay in Week 16 (38-8).

The Packers won’t be able to stop Arizona either. Carson Palmer, who is probably itching to win his first playoff game, had played great all season. David Johnson is great. I don’t think Randall Cobb or James Jones will be able to do much here. I expect a lot of points from Arizona here.

Cardinals 38, Packers 28

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) @ Carolina Panthers (15-1)

Toughest game of the weekend to pick for sure. Carolina beat Seattle in Week 6 in Seattle no less. I don’t think this is the same Seattle team though, and truthfully Carolina may be a little overrated.

Truth about the Panthers? They’ve only beaten four teams with winning records all season: Seattle, Green Bay, Washington and Houston. Their defense can be beaten and I think Seattle’s been the hottest team on offense recently. They really do have Beast Mode back this time around. I can’t help but think Carolina is in trouble.

Will Greg Olsen rip apart Seattle again? Maybe. Will Cam Newton pull a victory out of nowhere and show why he’s the MVP? Maybe. Am I overrating Seattle after they should have lost in Minnesota last week? Well I think the weather screwed with that. I think the two time defending NFC Champions are hitting their stride and the upset is happening. Sorry Cam.

Seahawks 24, Panthers 21 

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (12-4)

Ben Roethlisberger injured ligaments in his throwing arm. De’Angelo Williams isn’t playing. Antonio Brown is out. The Broncos have a great defense. Good luck with that Pittsburgh.

While we don’t know what Peyton Manning is going to give us, and if Pittsburgh can get some turnovers of Peyton maybe we might get one of those crazy games where the Steelers have 100 total yards but is somehow ahead 17-14. I don’t really see it. If Pittsburgh was healthy I’d actually be all for them in regards to an upset…but I don’t think so now.

Broncos 17, Steelers 9

 

Football

NFL 2014-2015 Wildcard Predictions

NFL Wildcard weekend is upon us. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Your NFC South Division “winners”, the Panthers, have not lost in December after a seven game non-winning streak (six losses and one tie). They’ve only beaten one team with a winning record (Detroit), and that was week 2. While they’re obviously hot, it’s not like they beat the cream of the crop in these last four weeks. It is impressive though that they beat both New Orleans and Atlanta on the road by a combined score of 75-13.

Yet the Panthers are big favorites over the Cardinals. The Cards have been lost after losing QB Carson Palmer for a second time this season…and for the remainder of the season. While Drew Stanton filled in at least respectably, he went down as well and left the Cardinals with Ryan Lindley. To give you a perspective on Lindley’s career, it took him to his sixth NFL Start to throw his first touchdown pass. He had seven interceptions already. Even tossing his first two TD scores wasn’t enough to lead the Cardinals past the downtrodden 49ers in week 17.

Look, the Cardinals have a much better defense, a better coach (Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera for sure) and really probably a better everything else, but this quarterback situation is brutal. There were stories that the Cards were calling Kurt Warner to play for him. Kurt Warner! He hasn’t played in five years! And anytime your QB is so bad that your fans are clamoring for the return of Drew Stanton…you aren’t winning a playoff game. It’s a shame for the Cardinals season for sure, but that’s just the way it goes.

For anyone who thinks a losing team can’t win a playoff game, history is actually on Carolina’s side here. The 2010-2011 Seahawks won their division at 7-9 and then beat New Orleans 41-36.

Panthers 17, Cardinals 9

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) 

Pittsburgh won the tight AFC North Division, a division that seemed to be going Cincinnati’s way all season long. Unlike the Panthers, who won all December games over subpar competition, the Steelers won all their December games against good competition, beating the Bengals twice and the 9-7 Chiefs as well. At one point the entire AFC North was close and it looked as if any of the four teams could win the division, but the Steelers won all their key games down the stretch, including a huge victory over the Ravens on November 2nd

The Ravens though, were no slouches toward the end of the season either, winning five of their last seven. They got a random career year out of running back Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco had what can arguably be considered his best career regular season. The Ravens also had top 10 offenses and defenses per DVOA, which shows a solid balance. John Harbaugh has this Ravens teams going for sure. A bonus too is that the Steelers will be without their star back Le’Veon Bell.

So why am I not sold on Baltimore? Well of their ten victories, they won one game against a team with a winning record, which was Pittsburgh in Baltimore during week 2. After that? They beat Cleveland at Cleveland, Carolina, the Bucs, the Falcons, the Titans, New Orleans, Miami, the Jaguars and finally Cleveland again. All of their losses came against teams with winning records. Not inspiring to say the least.

Ben Roethlisberger has also posted a career near 5K yard year. I don’t think he’s going down in one playoff game after that.

Steelers 24, Ravens 13

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

I could probably just write Andrew Luck vs. Andy Dalton and be done with it…but football doesn’t really work that way.

To be honest though, my confidence in each of these two QBs is what makes the result easy to determine. I mean, you watched last year’s playoffs right? Andrew Luck willed his team back from a 38-10 deficient to beat the Chiefs. The Bengals meanwhile got beat at home against the Chargers 10-27.

This year? The Colts are clearly one level below the elite, beating Baltimore, Texans and even the Bengals, but also had all five losses come against top teams (Denver, pre-Sanchez Philly, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas). The Bengals even recently had a victory over Denver, but that’s amidst a lot of questions about Peyton Manning. The Bengals had a chance to lock up the division last week and in typical Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengal fashion, they lost.

I just can’t not take a team quarterbacked by Andrew Luck here…in Indy no loss.

Colts 31, Bengals 10

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Two long suffering franchises (in Detroit’s case, very long) that have a chance to make a run in the NFC. This is Dallas’ best crack at a Superbowl appearance since they blew the 2008 NFC Divisional game to the Giants. As for Detroit, well, this is their first real chance since Barry.

I’m not sure what to make of this Lions team to be honest. If I told you before the season that your new coach would be Jim Caldwell and your megastar receiver, Calvin Johnson, would have an off year, would you think you would be 11-5 and heading to the playoffs? Of course not. So what’s changed? Well, Detroit suddenly has one of the best defensive units in football, and the best rushing one at that per DVOA. And with Ndamukong Suh leading the way and appealing his one game suspension, that defense is going to be the key to victory for Detroit.

On the opposite Dallas has the best rusher in football: DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo has put together his best season in what feels to be a last gasp to repair his reputation and prove he is in fact one of football’s best QBs. Overall I think this Cowboys team is just too good from top to bottom to lose to Detroit. It doesn’t help that Detroit still feels like an undisciplined team after Suh stepped on Aaron Rodgers.

The Cowboys have had some convincing wins this season and I’ll be surprised to see Detroit be the one to end it just like that.

Cowboys 23, Lions 16