We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2015 NFL Season! For a few years parity has actually been escaping the NFL although no one has seemed to notice or care. The NFL is more popular than ever and if recent events involving Commissioner Roger Goodell doesn’t dent that popularity than nothing will. Back to the parity point, for years many claimed that parity, that any team could win and perhaps go to the Super Bowl any year, was a big reason for the NFL’s popularity. Only the last three years have shown otherwise. The AFC Title game for the past four years have been Patriots-Ravens (2012 postseason), Patriots-Ravens again (2013), Patriots-Broncos (2014) and Patriots-Colts (2015). On the NFC side it has been 49ers-Giants (2012), 49ers-Falcons (2013), 49ers-Seahawks (2014) and Seahawks-Packers (2015). It isn’t even as if the Packers and Colts or even Giants were new to this either. So while another team may surprisingly win the division or even sneak into the Conference Title game, the days of the surprising 1999 Rams or 2003 Panthers seem to be over. That’s fine, as it makes things easier to predict.
With that being said…RDT’s 2015 NFL Predictions.
NFC East
Giants: 11-5
Cowboys: 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 6-10
It has been a few years since the Giants last surprised us with a Super Bowl run. While I don’t necessarily think a Super Bowl is in the cards this year this is the first time in a few years where I think the Giants aren’t being talked about enough (and I live in NY!). The Giants were a slightly better team than expected last year (7.5 Pythagorean Wins against 6 actual wins). With Odell Beckham giving Eli Manning his best weapon in his career, Eli just has to hope that whatever’s left of his offensive line can keep him protected. For two years now Eli’s O-Line has been decimated by injuries over the last couple of years and some of that lingers today. If he can get the ball out, Giants will have a chance on that side of the ball. The other thing going in the Giants’ favor is the absolute dysfunction of Washington and Philadelphia. The Redskins had their whole Robert Griffin III drama and now Kirk Cousins is starting, so that’s a mess waiting to happen. Philly has all the talent in the world, but Chip Kelly’s trade for, then lack of faith of, Sam Bradford sounds like a problem waiting to happen. I really think the ship has sailed on Kelly. What seemed revolutionary a couple of years ago now looks like a coach with too much roster power making crazy moves with a gimmick offense. I guess we’ll see. Dallas should be fine…they were arguably a play away from the NFC Title game last year…but I’ve been far past completely trusting Dallas and Tony Romo at this point.
NFC North
Vikings: 11-5
Packers: 11-5
Lions: 8-8
Bears: 7-9
It’s not just the return of Adrian Peterson, which may not even work out anyway (2,000 career caries), but that Minnesota is a young team that should only get better. They were 7-9 anyway without their best player. Part of that is Teddy Bridgewater and how well he played in his last six starts last year. According to Grantland, Teddy was 12 in QBR, completed 69% of his passes for 1,440 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTS. Best of all, it was an improvement over his first six starts. If Bridgewater improves and Peterson is still a monster, that’s suddenly a super dangerous combination. Green Bay is always going to be there as long as Aaron Rodgers plays quarterback, and him alone is enough to make Green Bay a Super Bowl contender (they almost got there last year). While they won’t fall that much, Detroit losing Ndamukong Suh is going to hurt too badly for them to be able to deal with Green Bay or Minnesota. Their offense should be fine unless Calvin Johnson regresses. The Bears should be okay, unless Jay Cutler is completely done.
NFC South
Panthers: 10-6
Saints: 8-8
Falcons: 7-9
Buccaneers: 4-12
This division is still a mess and really any of the four teams can take it. I like Carolina because despite not being the most talented team, Coach Ron Rivera’s transformation into “Riverboat Ron” (leading to taking chances on 4th down and such) and Cam Newton’s play gives Carolina a shot to win any game. Atlanta may be more talented, and who knows, perhaps the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection will be unstoppable this year, but I’ve never truly believed in Matt Ryan as a top tier quarterback. He always seemed like the guy with every single weapon at his disposal (Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Michael Turner). Their defense was horrid last year as well. Atlanta’s just going to have to prove it to me. I also think I’m over the Saints. I love Drew Brees, but losing Graham is going to hurt and I think their peak is over. And let’s give Jameis Winston a year to see what he’s got first.
NFC West
Seahawks: 12-4
Rams: 6-10
Cardinals: 5-11
49ers: 4-12
Even though I think Seattle is slowly on the way down they could easily be just fine and their division is weak anyway. I can’t find a powerhouse in the NFC that’s going take the regular season crown away from them. The Rams are a fun choice I guess, but I’m not going to believe in Nick Foles at QB. While they upset Seattle last year and have a good defense I need to see more before I go in with them. The Cardinals are a prime example of a team to fall apart. Without Carson Palmer they couldn’t score a point, and now we’re getting back a 35 year old Palmer coming off a torn ACL. Palmer’s been done as a top tier QB for years and I think 2014 was just an outlier. Then again, perhaps Arizona just needs him to be merely average. We’ll find out. I assume two people retired from the 49ers as I was writing this. I’m not putting any stock whatsoever in them. You don’t drop Jim Harbaugh and get better.
I just can’t find a way to bet against Seattle making the Super Bowl again. Unless there’s a crazy Giants team (don’t rule this out…happens every few years apparently) or Aaron Rodgers really is the GOAT (don’t rule this out either, although losing Jordy Nelson makes it so much harder on him) I’m going to have to pick Seattle here. Even if they are getting hit with “The Disease of More”.
AFC East
Patriots: 12-4
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 6-10
An angry Patriots team is a scary Patriots team. While some key losses may seem to hurt them (Revis), you’re going to have to find a really good argument to convince me that New England isn’t going to make at least their fifth straight AFC Title game. Remember how well Brady played after there were jokes that he was done and Jimmy Garoppolo was going to start? How did that turn out for the NFL? The Bills will be decent because Rex Ryan can get the best out of a smashmouth football team, but he’s still in the wrong era and Buffalo’s QB situation is appallingly bad. Miami seems to be a popular choice to surprise, but they have no secondary and Ryan Tannenhill is their quarterback. The Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick running their offense. So unless the defense wants to carry them like they did for Geno, it’s just not going to happen.
AFC North
Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 6-10
Browns: 3-13
The Ravens have some red flags…mainly their only legit WR is an aging Steve Smith and the running game looks like it has a lot to be desired. That’s okay though, their defense should carry them to at least the 9-7 range alone, and I’m more of a Joe Flacco fan than not at the moment. I think the Steelers are a bit weaker overall (and have a tough schedule…they play teams like the Colts where Baltimore doesn’t). The Bengals run of one and dones are going to end eventually, and until they move on from Andy Dalton I’m going to pick this season for that. You can’t help but feel bad for the Browns. Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel? Maybe Manziel figures it out. Don’t sleep on the Ravens though…you always have to give a real chance to well coached teams.
AFC South
Colts: 12-4
Texans: 6-10
Titans: 5-11
Jaguars: 3-13
This is simple to figure out. The Jaguars are still a mess. Unless Mariotta is great right away the Titans will be bad once again, and the Texans somehow downgraded from Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (although it wouldn’t surprise me if J.J. Watt somehow won 10 games by himself at this point). That leaves the Andrew Luck Colts. I don’t think the Colts are as good as everyone says…they’re right now a popular Super Bowl pick. People are forgetting that the only reason the Colts got by Denver in the playoffs last year was because Peyton Manning was hurt. Otherwise you had a Denver-NE rematch going. Colts will be fine, Luck might be better (which is why their record doesn’t fall), but they’re still behind New England and Denver.
AFC West
Chiefs: 11-5
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 10-6
Raiders: 6-10
Put a big asterisk here, because we don’t know what Peyton Manning we are getting. Is he healthy? Is he still hurt from last year? I think that fear combined with the changes made coaching wise will hurt Denver a bit…although a 10-6 Broncos team can absolutely make the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are a stereotypical Andy Reid team. They’ll probably win the division and lose in the opening round to Denver. I’ve always been a bit of a Philip Rivers fan and thought he played well the last two years. I think this may be San Diego’s last shot at anything. Remember last year they started 5-1 and just had a rough schedule down the stretch.
Ultimately I see a rematch in the Super Bowl. While there are some teams that I think can threaten Seattle and New England, I feel there are too many flaws out there for them to overcome their weaknesses. I think Seattle wins this time though.
