The NBA Injury What-If All Stars

On the heels of the unfortunate news about Derrick Rose, it seems appropriate to revisit some of the greatest NBA players to have injuries derail what was potentially a Hall of Fame (or better) career. Truthfully, a couple of these guys on this What-If All Star team may make the Hall of Fame anyway. The point of this team is strictly injuries that plagued the prime years or more of a player’s career. Other reasons such as attitude or bad personal habits count against a player making this team, as that’s on the player. Also, for the purposes of this article, I am focusing on players from the 90s on. So no Bill Walton or Sidney Moncrief.

First, a list of “cuts”.

Tim Hardaway: He put up three straight years of about 23-10 for the RUN TMC Warriors before a knee injury took out his age 27 season. He lost tons of quickness, but was still quite effective with a 20-9 in his comeback year. Hardaway later was an effective 2nd option for the Miami Heat in the late 90s as well. Why did he miss this list? I have questions about just how good Hardaway really was (Warriors were 34-48 the year before he got hurt, went 50-32 when he was gone when they got Chris Webber, then dropped back to 26-56 the year he came back). I also don’t think his downfall was as big as others. So he was 85% as good as he was.

Chris Webber: Speaking of Webber, injuries seemed to limit Webber’s overall career. It’s debatable what you thought Webber’s ceiling was but I don’t need to get into that. Webber was mostly healthy in his prime years for the Kings. And the truth was he wasn’t as good as Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki or Kevin Garnett at that time either. Nevermind the fact that the Kings often wondered if they were just as good without him.

Alonzo Mourning: Kidney ailments practically ruined Alonzo Mourning’s twilight years starting from age 30. But as good as he was, he wasn’t good enough to carry the Heat to the finals (or usually past the Knicks). He was who he was and had reached his potential as a good offensive player and destructive defensive player. He still made the Hall of Fame.

Amar’e Stoudemire and Tracy McGrady: Both guys started very young in the NBA and were successful right away and both flourished offensively. T-Mac’s issue is this. Comparing them in 2003, Tracy McGrady was a more talented basketball player than Kobe Bryant. But overall Kobe just wanted it more. That’s why Kobe was still an elite guy as late as 2011 and McGrady was a role player in 2008. Sure injuries played a part of it. But so did passion and hard work. Stoudemire’s case is a bit different, as he basically got the most out of someone who focused on just offense. He should have been a better rebounder and should have at least tried on defense. But he didn’t. Also, both guys had pretty much full careers before injuries really took their tolls (Amar’e came back strong from his 2005-2006 injuries as well). If Chris Bosh’s career ends up being over, you could make the same case about having a full career here. You can make it for Alonzo as well.

Vin Baker: Alcoholism is a sad deal for sure. But it won’t count as an injury here.

Gilbert Arenas: Knee injuries hurt his career sure. But bringing guns into the locker room was a lot worse.

Vince Carter: Notably one of the softest players of his generation (knock him down once and no more dunking), but let’s not forget he also outright gave up on Toronto.

Jay Williams and Shaun Livingston: Two lottery picks. Williams ruined his career in a motorcycle accident and while he had some bright spots his rookie year, that’s wasn’t enough for me to think he was a Hall of Famer in waiting (his advanced metrics were quite bad for a rookie too). Livingston blew his knee out in about 10 different places at once, but again, nothing really indicated just how good he would be.

Steve Francis: With Francis, it’s more bad attitude than anything else. Notes about Francis: practically finished off basketball in Vancouver when he didn’t want to go there. Got Jeff Van Gundy tons of praise for inspiring Francis to play any defense. Got suspended in Orlando for conduct detrimental to the team. And there’s a video out there (I’ll post it if I can find it) that shows Francis walking away from an opponent taking a three pointer. It wasn’t just the knee.

Now, your What-If All Stars.

The Bench

Andrew Bynum, C, Lakers, Sixers, Cavs, Pacers

Resume: Peak Year: 19-12-2, 56% FG, .183 WS/48, All Star, NBA All 2nd Team (11-12, 24 Yrs.). Two Time NBA Champion.

Bynum hasn’t played effective basketball since that 2012 season. The Lakers, with amazing timing, traded Bynum for Dwight Howard. Bynum didn’t play the next year at all, then played 26 rough games for the Pacers and Cavs (averaging a 9-6 on 41% shooting) due to deteriorating knees. He hasn’t played since. Sure he was (and is) a hot head, but Bynum was a force for the Lakers through their two title teams and a couple years beyond, and he was only 24 for that 2012 season. Now he’s out of the league at 27.

Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers, Miami Heat

Resume: Peak Year: 11-9-2 in 24 MPG 21 G, 23.1 PER, .214 WS/48 (09-10, 22 Yrs.)

Seems odd to put Oden here when not including Jay Williams or Shaun Livingston? Well Oden’s advanced metrics were off the charts in his first two seasons…at least for the 82 games he played. He showed significant improvement in his second season (including a 24-12-2 in 27 minutes). But he couldn’t stay on the court. Any reason not to include him on this team would be more of what happened later (domestic violence, sending sexual explicit images to women, alcohol issues, lack of desire to play), but it’s clear that what derailed his career first was the injuries. In fact, a lot of those may have even been caused by the expectation and pressure he was under.

Terrell Brandon, PG, Cavs, Bucks, T-Wolves

Resume: Peak Year: 19-6-2, 46-38-88%s, 25.2 PER, .237 WS/48, 27.6% Usage, All-Star (95-96, 25 Yrs.)

Let’s put it this way: if you agree that Chauncey Billups is a top 50 player of all time (he is), then this is an easy sell. If not, well you probably won’t buy this. His 25.2 PER was 6th that season, behind David Robinson, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Karl Malone and Hakeem, and right ahead of Charles Barkley. Here’s the list of players who had a season of at least 27.6% usage and a 121 offensive rating for one season in the 3 point era: Barkley, Bird, Stephen Curry (so far in 14-15 at least), Adrian Dantley, Durant, LeBron, Jordan, Nowitzki, Amar’e and Kiki Vandeweghe. And Terrell Brandon. Just look at that list! Brandon’s stats for 1996 look a lot like Billups later during the Pistons run in the mid 00s. Not surprisingly Billups’ teams “overachieved”. Brandon dragged a Cavs team that featured Chris Mills, Bobby Phills, Danny Ferry and Michael Cage to 47-35. It’s worth noting that this was Brandon’s first year as a starter and he was very good in 1997 as well. He was the main piece of the haul that the Bucks received for parting with Vin Baker where Cleveland got Shawn Kemp (so Brandon was traded with a 1st that had middling potential for an in his prime Shawn Kemp. Not bad). Knee injuries screwed up Brandon in Milwaukee. Look, he was really damn good and even remained effective after those injuries. Don’t scoff at the 19-6.

Antonio McDyess, PF, Nuggets, Suns, Knicks, Pistons, Spurs

Resume: Peak Year: 21-11-2, All NBA Third Team (1999, 24 Yrs.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ZLXkRGH_0

You can argue McDyess’ 2000-2001 year is better (21-12). Anyway, McDyess was a high flying power forward known to try to touch the top of the backboard. He had 21-11, 19-9 and 21-12 coming up to his age 28 season. He would rupture his patella tendon, resulting him only playing 10 games in 01-02. Got dealt to the Knicks and while it’s only the pre-season, put up the following lines: 17-17, 13-7 in 17 minutes and a 23-15 before getting injured again with a fractured kneecap. He wouldn’t be the same. It’s one of the forgotten what-ifs for the mid-2000 Knicks.

McDyess was an explosive power forward who was just hitting his prime. It would have only benefitted him playing in the Eastern Conference at that time…the best power forward in the East was Kenyon Martin at that point…and injuries took away his shot at being a top player. He would re-invent himself in Detroit and San Antonio, but would narrowly miss winning a title.

Reggie Lewis, SF, Celtics

Resume: Peak Year: 21-5, 50% FG, 85% FT, All-Star (91-92, 26 Yrs.)

A tough call, but ultimately decided Lewis makes the team for the following reasons.

His cause of death: If it was ruled to be cocaine, I wouldn’t have him here (why I didn’t consider Len Bias). But his heart scarring showed to be inconsistent with cocaine.

While Lewis’ advanced metrics as a whole showed to be rather average, he scored well on a good percentage on a good team and had some good offensive metrics.

He was a crucial part of the post-Bird Celtics. Bird retired…and the Celtics under Lewis in 1992-1993 won 48 games and made the playoffs. He had been handed the keys and all indications pointed to him leading Boston to some more winning seasons. He was just about to hit his prime. But sadly we’ll never know.

Drazen Petrovic, SG, Blazers, Nets

Resume: Peak Year: 22.3 PPG, 52-45-87%s, All NBA Third Team (92-93, 28 Yrs.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLlPtBsGbYo

Drazen’s death potentially set back the immersion of international players in the NBA…but his success ultimately aided that same immersion. Drazen was a dead eye scorer who feared no one. Just watch the highlight reel against the ’93 Rockets (featuring the best defensive player in the world at that point, Hakeem).

He wasn’t happy being benched behind Clyde Drexler in Portland, got a trade to New Jersey and flourished, showing international players CAN succeed in the NBA. For all the talk about Toni Kukoc for Croatia in the 1992 Olympics…Drazen was the true best player on that team. Of the first 14 years that the NBA had a three point line, Drazen had three of the top 17 shooting seasons (2 of those with high enough volume in NJ). He shot 43.7% for his career from the 3 point line (255/583). I mean what?

Maybe it’s a bit of cheating to add someone who was trending upward in his age 28 season, but we had no idea how much better Petrovic was going to get. And when he died in a car crash, we never would know. He also set the stage for Manu, Dragic and all the other international guards that come through the NBA. If anything Drazen was 20 years ahead of his time. He would be a more devastating version of Klay Thompson if he were in the league today.

Brandon Roy, SG, Blazers, T-Wolves

Resume: Peak Year: 23-5-5, 48-38-82%s, .223 WS/48, All NBA Second Team (08-09, 24 Yrs.). All NBA Third Team in 2010.

One of the biggest disappointments in recent NBA history in terms of injuries, because there was nothing Roy could do about it. His knees didn’t have any cartilage and it zapped all of his explosiveness and quickness. Roy was the #2 SG in the league behind Kobe and his injuries turned him into a fraction of that player. He injured the knee late in 2010 and he never recovered. He started slowly in 2010-2011, scoring the same but shooting a much lower percentage. He took a month off and came back worse. Other than one throwback game (how sad is it that at 26 he has a throwback game) in the 2011 playoffs against Dallas, Brandon Roy was done. He would attempt one more season a couple of years later, got paid somehow, got everyone excited…and played five pitiful games. One of the most promising careers a half-decade earlier was over.

The ramifications are huge. When LaMarcus Aldridge eventually became a much better player he did it after Roy. Roy and the Aldridge of today teaming up would have made Portland a legit championship contender (and if they made the same Gerald Wallace trade, impossible to say, that could be Aldridge, Roy AND Lillard). We get to miss out on Brandon Roy vs. James Harden battles. It’s a shame all around.

Your Starting Lineup

Danny Manning, PF, Clippers, Hawks, Suns, Bucks, Jazz, Mavericks, Pistons

Resume: Peak Year: 23-6, 51% FG, All-Star (91-92, 25 Yrs.), Two Time All-Star

Manning’s peak year looks pretty disappointing. But he’s here for a totally different reason. Here was one of the great college players of all time coming into his rookie year, averaging 17-6 the first 26 games of the season. And at age 21…he tore his ACL. Manning never regained any of the elite skills he showed at Kansas but to his credit, he still became a very good player. He dragged the Clippers from pretty much hell and took them to the playoffs for the first time in 16 seasons. Got traded for an aging but still All-Star Dominique during his 2nd All Star year…although the Hawks sent a 1st as well. That’s still good company. He left Atlanta but tore up his other knee the next year…and despite being the first player to play in the NBA with both knees surgically reconstructed, he STILL managed to be an effective player. Who knows what happens if he never tears his ACL in his rookie year.

Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway, SG, Magic, Suns, Knicks, Heat

Resume: Peak Year: 22-7-4-2, 51% FG, .229 WS/48, All NBA First Team (95-96, 24 Yrs.). Also made All NBA First Team in 94-95, and Third Team in 96-97. 2nd Best Player on Eastern Conference Champ (’95 Magic)

Penny Hardaway and Shaquille O’Neal were supposed to own the East and the NBA forever. But Penny and Shaq didn’t get along, and Shaq bolted to LA. Penny still looked very good post-Shaq…until knee injuries destroyed his career. Penny made two All NBA First Teams pretty much right away and was Shaq’s original #2 man in the path to the NBA Finals in 1995. They would get close in 1996 as well…but MJ and the ’96 Bulls were too much to handle.

Many said Penny was Magic Johnson 2.0, and there were similarities for sure…but Penny earlier in his career was a better scorer than Magic. Penny wanted that superstar glory for himself. The only thing that could have held him back was his attitude. Otherwise, the Penny vs. Hill battles throughout the early 2000s would have been fascinating. An example of just how devastating Penny could be? Down 0-2 to the Heat in the 1997 playoffs he put together back to back 40 point games and kept Orlando alive (31-6 in the series against a great defensive team). As long as he kept his head on straight and kept his brand in check (lil’ Penny!) and stayed healthy Penny would go down as one of the all time greats.

Penny injured his ACL in a way that was unidentifiable at the time. Penny eventually came back in late ’97, early ’98, clearly not himself. There was controversy in regards to him playing the 1998 All-Star Game…which was made worse when he didn’t play during the rest of the season afterwards (reminds me of Carmelo actually). He was good, but not nearly the same in 1999 and got wrecked by Allen Iverson in the playoffs. He got sent to the Suns…and did okay for a while but then ended up with microfracture surgery and became a shell of his former self. Just read these last two paragraphs again. Penny and Hill’s injuries were major reasons the Eastern Conference was horrible in the early 2000s.

Grant Hill, SF, Pistons, Magic, Suns, Clippers

Resume: Peak Year: 21-9-7-2, 50% FG, .223 WS/48, All NBA First Team (96-97, 24 Yrs.) Other seasons: 20-6-5 (22 Yrs, Rookie), 20-10-7, 21-7-8, 26-5-7. Seven Time All Star. Made four other All NBA Second Teams.

Basically LeBron before LeBron. With the exception of two of those All Star appearances, he accomplished all on his resume before his 28th birthday.

How crazy is that? Grant Hill came into the league and was great right away. He had a killer crossover…yet could play power forward. He was literally the LeBron prototype. After the first six seasons of his career, he had 9,393 points, 3,417 rebounds and 2,720 assists. Only three players in NBA history surpassed those numbers in their first three seasons: Larry Bird, LeBron and Oscar Robertson. Grant Hill was the future. He was traded to Orlando since he planned to sign with them, which netted Detroit Ben Wallace. Some called the deal the most lopsided in NBA history. But it turned out Detroit got the better end when Wallace helped bring a championship to Detriot.

He sprained his ankle late in 2000, but continued to gut it out knowing what he meant to the Pistons organization. He fought hard against the Heat but made the ankle significantly worse (Hill deserves a lot of credit for this considering his impending free agency…although he got max money anyway). He would never fully recover from his ankle injury. Over the next few seasons he barely played for Orlando, his new team, and the following procedure were done: a re-fracturing of his ankle to line it up with his leg…and he also contracted MRSA from that. While he would finally play a near full season and even make one more All-Star team in ’05, he was still a shell of his former self. Hill remained a solid role player throughout the rest of his career.

Remember those Jason Kidd led Nets teams that went to the finals in the early 2000s? Something tells me those don’t happen with a healthy Grant Hill in the league. For his 28, 29, 30 and 31 year old seasons…Hill played 47 games total.

Derrick Rose, PG, Bulls

Resume: Peak Year: 25-8-4, .208 WS/48, NBA MVP, All NBA First Team (10-11, 22 Yrs.) Three Time NBA All-Star. .211 WS/48 in 11-12.

How crazy is it that this may be the end of Derrick Rose’s resume? That MVP is his ONLY All NBA Team and probably will be for the rest of his career (whether or not he deserved the MVP is a different question).

It all began with a serious torn ACL in his left knee in the 2012 playoffs against the Sixers. While in the 90s ACL injuries were huge, these days it should be as bad. But Rose failed to return in 12-13, then managed only 10 games in 13-14 after tearing his meniscus and missing the rest of the season. Rose came back in 14-15…and another tear in the meniscus has put his season in jeopardy. While the meniscus tear is bad…the 18 month recovery time needed from the first ACL injury is a bigger red flag considering he struggled when he came back. Something happened from that first ACL injury that Derrick Rose never got past. Of course, there’s the stats as well: 21-7, 46% FG before the ACL tear in his career…18-5, 40% since.

The good thing for Rose? He’s the only person who can actually play off this team. Good luck Derrick Rose! He’s only 26!

Yao Ming, C, Rockets

Resume: Peak Year: 20-10-2, 54% FG, All NBA Second Team (08-09, 28 Yrs.) .200 CAREER WS/48. Lowest Orating for a season: 110. .220 WS/48, 25-9 in 48 G in 06-07. 8 Time All Star. One other All NBA 2nd Team and three All NBA Third Teams.

Some people called Yao soft. Somewhere in that soft tag was a dominant defensive player, a great offensive player, a legit 20-10 guy who blocked 2 shots a game. Yet in 8 seasons he didn’t even manage to play 500 games. He got through his first three seasons injury free but couldn’t get out of Round 1. Got hurt in April of his 4th season and wouldn’t play another full season until 08-09, where he was great. Without T-Mac, he led the Rockets past Roy and the Blazers and led a shocking upset in Game 1 against the Lakers. While the Rockets would go down 2-1, they would have to press further without Yao as he suffered a hairline fracture. And just like that, it was over. Great secret what-if? Do the Rockets win the series if Yao stays healthy. I mean…they took it to seven anyway.

Yao was a physical freak. Despite all the injuries, his game never wavered. He was pretty much a 20-10 guy since year two. If he stayed healthy, do the Rockets make a Finals? Impossible to say, but I think Yao did have that in him. His stats were good. The advanced metrics were great. He just threw in a “yeah, I’m a great player” performance against the Lakers in Game 1. I think he’s a Hall of Famer anyway.

There they are…your What-If All Stars. Try not to be too sad like me right now. And best of luck to Derrick Rose. And while we are at it…I really hope we don’t see Paul George on this team soon.

2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Preview: 10 Questions

nascar 2015 logo

On the eve of the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship opener: the Daytona 500, fans still wonder about the direction the sport is headed. Last year’s Chase for the Cup Championship, while exiting, took a lot of the authenticy and even legitimacy of the Sprint Cup Championship. We are now far removed from the days where a driver had to be good for 36 straight weeks in order to win a title. We’re even now past the idea of a driver putting together a hot ten weeks, similar to most major league playoff systems, and winning a championship. Now you just have to make it to the end by any means necessary and you can be champion if you outlast three other drivers in one race. I may sound pretty negative on this, but I don’t think the most recent way to decide the Sprint Cup Champion is a bad thing. In fact, the only issue I really have with it is the fact that the title is decided by one race at the end. Three would suffice for me. I understand why it’s like that though, ever since 2011 NASCAR looked to replicate the Tony Stewart vs. Carl Edwards battle for the title. That was the year Stewart barely made the Chase, won five of the ten Chase races and won a points tie with Edwards because of his five wins against Edwards one. Despite Stewart’s lackluster regular season, I was perfectly fine with this. Stewart was good when it mattered over a decent sample size. I would also change the non-winners getting in. I wouldn’t allow any non-winners unless they were the regular season points champion. Win a race if you want to be the champion.

 I don’t know if NASCAR liked the Kevin Harvick vs. Ryan Newman battle from last year…but I bet they are happy Harvick won. Newman of course had merely four top 5s and 0 wins but snuck into the final based off of not making any mistakes and rarely finishing worse than 20th. He finished 2nd at Homestead and could have won the title if Harvick had any issue. It would have the worst champion in the history of the Sprint Cup title as well. Would have been rectified with my win or you’re not in rule.

Anyway, let’s ask 10 pressing questions about the 2015 NASCAR season.

Who’s winning the title?

Could be anyone under this format really. I think Jeff Gordon is a sentimental favorite due to his retirement announcement. But he’s a legit title contender as well and might have gotten there if he didn’t screw up after Brad Keselowski messed up his tire at Texas making a “crazy move”. It’s forgotten that Gordon actually ruined his own chances at winning the title last year by not getting out of pit road in time after the incident with Keselowski which cost him a lap. Gordon ultimately lost to Ryan Newman by one point…a point he surely could have made up at the end of Texas.

RDT predicts these two will be in the hunt for the title
RDT predicts these two will be in the hunt for the title

Anyway, I like keeping Harvick in the final four. I remember laughing when I saw Harvick being listed as the favorite by numerous betting sites before the Chase. Harvick responded with three wins (including the last two races to win the title), six top 5s and nine top 15s. I would not rule out Harvick. I also will include Jimmie Johnson. Johnson had the first “bad” season for him (11th in the standings despite 4 wins, and 20 top 10s…which amazingly tied a career low for him). Yeah, JJ has dominated the Chase races for practically a decade now. It’s still smart money to think he’ll be in the end. I’m not going to pick Gordon. He didn’t get in despite a great season last year. For the other two spots I’ll go with Brad Keselowski, who’s aggressiveness can lead to wins late, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may scoff at my adding Junior, but he’s at the top of his game and even won the Martinsville race after he was eliminated. A four win season last year proves he’s ready to go. He might just win the Daytona 500 this year. Also consider when calculating the 2013 Championship with 2014 rules, Dale Jr. actually wins the title in that format (with no wins at that).

I would ultimately pick Johnson to bring home title #7.

What about Tony Stewart?

Tony Stewart is a very interesting dark horse for the Championship considering he’s been known for his hot streaks at the end of the season (see 2011). Stewart didn’t race a full 2013 due to injury, and then the Kevin Ward tragedy ruined any chance Stewart was going to make a late season surge. Has he put that behind him? His he 100% healthy? Can he still handle being a car owner and an elite level NASCAR driver? I don’t know, but if you can get really good odds, I wouldn’t count Tony Stewart out.

What will happen with Kurt and Kyle Busch?

I think we may finally be at the point of Kurt Busch’s top level NASCAR career being over. He’s only been employed due to his talent (which won a title in 2004). But I mean it was questionable that he was going to be picked up by anyone during his previous incidents…and now we are throwing domestic violence on top of that. Domestic violence is unfortunately a hot topic as top tier athletes in other sports (Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice) have had notably incidents and didn’t play their respective seasons. I think at minimum we’ll see Kurt Busch at that level.

Kyle’s situation is a shame but we still need more information. He was injured in the Xfinity series opener at Daytona today and will miss the 500. But if he can get back on track and win one race he can still get in the Chase, which isn’t far-fetched at all (Denny Hamlin did this last year and made the final four). I think it’s a good sign that Kyle is scaling back his non-Sprint Cup obligations. He’s one of the most talented drivers in the sport and just needs to focus. He’s only 29 and can still be the future of Sprint Cup if he sets his mind to it.

Who is someone not named Kyle Larson or Tony Stewart who makes the Chase this year that didn’t last year?

Stewart isn’t a fair answer and Larson would be the obvious answer, so let’s ignore those two. I think Jamie McMurray has the best chance. Both Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. both haven’t gotten past the 2013 Richmond incident, in Bowyer’s case losing support and in Truex’s case losing his whole ride and I don’t like either here. Austin Dillon has a chance so we’ll see. I pick McMurray because he is one of the best superspeedway guys and could easily win a Daytona or Talladega to get in.

Which driver takes a big step back this season?

For sure it’s Ryan Newman. Before last season Newman never even finished in the top 5 in the standings. Zero wins, five top 5s and 16 top 10s is fringe top 10 in the standings stats…and most of the time even worse. I don’t know if he’ll drop out completely though if he keeps up the avoidance of bad finishes.

Is this the year of Danica?

No…but don’t be surprise if she finally strings something decent together. I say she contends for a top 20 standings spot. Unless she keeps getting into arguments with guys like Hamlin.

Danica needs to get into thew news by winning and not arguing
Danica needs to get into the news by winning and not arguing

Will NASCAR keep qualifying like this?

Probably. Old qualifying was an absolute bore to watch and at least this provides excitement. They had to change some of the rules at Daytona though and I assume they’ll apply at Talladega too after the embarrassing situation that cost Ricky Stenhouse Jr. a starting spot last year.

Will Roush Racing make a comeback?

Roush Racing is no longer one of the elite teams in NASCAR and a big reason why Carl Edwards bolted for the crazily stacked Gibbs (I might want to re-do my top 4). Greg Biffle will always be a threat to win a race or two. Hopefully Stenhouse improves from a massively disappointing 2014 season. Trevor Bayne shoots for Rookie of the Year honors this season and of course won the Daytona 500 in one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history in 2011. Does that mean he’ll win another one? Well…probably not. Best bet is on Biffle having a good season for Roush to be relevant here.

Gibbs is stacked…so why don’t you have any of them in your final four?

One of the big things about NASCAR is that roster wise, this is the probably the most competitive the Sprint Cup Series has ever been. It’s been like this for quite a while now (a big reason why Jimmie Johnson’s six titles in eight years is probably way more impressive than anything Dale Earnhardt or Richard Petty has done). Gibbs has 03 champ Matt Kenseth, Edwards (runner up in ’08 and ’11), Hamlin (runner up in ’10) and Kyle Busch (29 career wins, 4th in 2013). I haven’t even mentioned some top guys from other teams like Joey Logano (made the final four last year). Any of these guys could win the championship in addition to Stewart, Gordon and the four I mentioned in question #1. That’s 11 guys right there. It’s crazy.

Joe Gibbs Racing is stacked this season
Joe Gibbs Racing is stacked this season

Defining story of the season?

I think we’ll see Jeff Gordon put together one hell of a season for his swan song. It’s amazing that Gordon won four Cups in his first nine years then was never that good again. Sure he could have won in 2004, 2007 and last year, but he didn’t. It’s easy to forget just how dominant Gordon was in the 90s. From the 1995 season (his first title season) through the 2001 season (his last) he won 56 races. That’s more than legends such as Rusty Wallace throughout their whole career. He won 33 times in 1996, 1997 and 1998, a three season span. His dominance was insane. He won the first Brickyard, multiple Daytona 500s and was always a very good driver at his worst. He’s a big reason NASCAR reached the popularity levels it did in the 90s and early 2000s. I don’t think he’ll get to 100 (although I wouldn’t completely rule out an 8 win season from him), but three wins, and ending up in the 5th-8th spot of the championship wouldn’t be out of the question. And if Kasey Kahne falls apart this season…don’t be surprised to see Hendrick begging Gordon for one last run in 2016.

The Fastlane to Wrestlemania

FastLane replaces the Elimination Chamber
FastLane replaces the Elimination Chamber

WWE Fastlane replaces the Elimination Chamber Pay-Per-View (rumored to be done later in the year) as the penultimate PPV stop on the Road to Wrestlemania. After a lackluster Royal Rumble, WWE has created one of the least exciting atmospheres on the Road to Wrestlemania in recent memory. While a lot of this has to do with the Royal Rumble winner Roman Reigns, it moreso is the issue of new talent not being pushed properly, popular talent being made fools of (see Ambrose, Dean) and a thin roster overall. The most interesting rivalries are HHH vs. Sting, Bray Wyatt against whomever he is talking about, presumably The Undertaker and Daniel Bryan vs. Reigns, which seemingly has a forced narrative after Reigns was booed out of Philadelphia at the Royal Rumble. Three of the six of those matches have legendary guys that don’t (or rarely) wrestle on any of the other PPVs, one is Wyatt, who while interesting, is interesting despite of the booking crew. Bryan of course should be the top guy in the company right now no question, and Reigns is the guy WWE wants to be the top guy.

Fans want Bryan at the top
Fans want Bryan at the top

This forced push of Roman Reigns has led to WWE spinning their wheels. Roman Reigns has an amazing look and a ton of charisma, and is even a bit underrated as a worker (not different than Kevin Nash in 1995 really) but his monster push has turned fans against him. WWE might be turning him heel here…in the long run him fighting Bryan is only going to lead to a heel turn where WWE intended it or not. This is the best route though. If Reigns beats Bryan at Fastlane and gets his WWE Title shot against Brock Lesnar, Lesnar would be just fine as a face. The strength of Lesnar’s character is that for all intents and purposes what you see is what you get. Lesnar is a prize fighter who doesn’t really care about the business and is out to make his money. He doesn’t pretend to like anyone. He is true to himself. And honestly, while the reasoning is quite heelish, as a fan I can cheer that. I want to see Lesnar destroy the “WWE’s golden boy” Roman Reigns. Roman Reigns would be better off doing the same in being true to himself, and aligning himself with the Authority.

Rollins made himself a star at the Rumble
Rollins made himself a star at the Rumble

My favorite scenario for Wrestlemania? Lesnar vs. Reigns vs. Bryan vs. Money in the Bank Winner Seth Rollins. Lesnar is the champ. Having both Reigns and Bryan there make sense given their storyline at the moment. Rollins would be a great guy to say “hey, I almost beat Lesnar and Cena at the Rumble. I deserve to be in the main event at Wrestlemania and I’ll force my way in”. Also make this an elimination match. If Lesnar is leaving, you can still have Reigns Superman punch him to take him out of the match and give him that rub. Let Bryan and Rollins steal the show. Put the belt on Bryan and have Rollins and Reigns chase him, then Wyatt and Rusev afterwards. And don’t tell me there isn’t money in another Bryan vs. Cena match.

The other matches at Fastlane don’t quite excite me. Tyson Kidd and Cesaro hopefully will get a nice run with the tag titles. They remind me a little bit of Razor Ramon and the 1-2-3 Kid. I really don’t care about The Bella Twins anymore and I’m one of the few who isn’t a huge Paige fan, although her appearance on Total Divas is making me one. Rusev vs. Cena is interesting in the sense that Wrestlemania won’t be the beginning of their feud, and hopefully will end it. I’m fine with Cena ending Rusev’s undefeated streak for sure, but I want Rusev to come out on top at the end. Bad Bews Barrett I think is a little past the point of where I really care about him. It’s a shame as I wanted Barrett to be the World Champ every year through 2013. Ambrose, good as he is, just hasn’t been the same since the Shield broke up. That’s another booking disaster. I can’t say I care about the Dust Brother feud. I like them both and as a face team I enjoyed them. This is the closest they’ll get to that dream feud Goldust wanted between him and his brother years ago at Wrestlemania. I assume Sting shows up and I hope they fix that music. At the end of the night, we’ll know where we are at for Wrestlemania. I just hope it’s a good place.

NBA “Midseason” Award Winners

               It’s the main event of NBA’s unofficial midseason: the All-Star Game. All-Star Weekend itself often has tons of storylines. For example, who were the biggest snubs? At first it looked like it would be Damian Lillard and DeMarcus Cousins, but both for in due to injuries from other players. After Dirk Nowitzki (who is still having a good season, but has slipped a bit) got in, my thought now is that DeAndre Jordan is actually the biggest snub left. He’s been having a Tyson Chandler like season, only he’s a much better rebounder than Chandler ever was. His presence in the middle really might make a difference in April…unless these first 54 games from him was just a fluke. Other storylines involved a stacked three point contest (won by Stephen Curry) and Zach LaVine leaving Dr. J’s jaw on the ground after one of his dunks. It’s been a fun All-Star Weekend for sure.

               Now that we’re at the “midseason”, it’s time to see who our front runners are for the regular season awards.

Most Improved Player

Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose
Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose

Jimmy Butler, SF Bulls

               Normally I’d be all “of course it’s Jimmy Butler, who else could it be?!”, but Klay Thompson could easily win this award as well. I have to give the edge to Butler though, because this season he’s shown to be someone we didn’t know he could be. We knew Thompson was a very good shooter at least. I mean the Warriors wouldn’t part ways with him for Kevin Love (a genius move, I was sure wrong about that one) and he and Curry already had the “Splash Bros.” nickname going. But we already knew Thompson was good. Yes he’s even a better shooter than we thought, and yes he’s improved on defense quite a bit. And yes, he did score 37 points in one quarter.

               But what did we really think of Butler before this season? He was an okay to good (depending on the night) wing that wasn’t a difference maker of any kind. The Bulls spent all summer trying to land Carmelo Anthony. Butler shot under 40% last season with 13 PPG and 5 RPG. Not really inspiring stuff. He had a PER of 13.5 (below average), a WS48 of .131 (solid rotation guy) and an offensive rating of 108 on 17% usage (good roleplayer). This year? 46% shooting, 20.4 PPG, 6 RPG, PER of 21.3, 123 ORtg on 21.5% usage. Those are some crazy jumps. He’s doing all this without an effective Derrick Rose no less. And Bulls fans don’t really seem to be talking about Carmelo anymore.

Sixth Man of the Year

Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East
Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East

Lou Williams, SG, Raptors

This comes down to three players for me so far. Williams, Jamal Crawford and Isaiah Thomas. I should probably rule out Crawford as this has been his worst LA Clipper year so far. He’s not quite the offensive sparkplug he was even last year, and if he’s not going to be a very good offensive guy then his horrid defense becomes a bigger problem. I’m in on Williams as he’s been part of a team that hasn’t had any chemistry problems since adding him and Toronto’s been near the top of the East for the entire year. Thomas and Williams are pretty close to the same player statwise (Thomas has a small edge), but trade rumors have been abundant in Phoenix ever since the idea of playing three guards came about. Sure, Goran Dragic’s contract is up soon, but you don’t see the Suns actively trying to keep him either.

Rookie of the Year

Wiggins looks like the real deal
Wiggins looks like the real deal

Andrew Wiggins, SG, Timberwolves

He started slow…played Cleveland in December and caught fire ever since. Since that game against Cleveland on 12/23, he’s averaged 18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.5 APG and only 1.9 TPG on nearly 47% shooting. And he didn’t have Ricky Rubio for most of it. That’s….pretty good. Once Jabari Parker went down all Wiggins had to do was play well to win the award…and he has.

Defensive Player of the Year

Green has led the best defense in the NBA
Green has led the best defense in the NBA

Draymond Green, SF, Warriors

It’s not every day that a swingman has the lowest defensive rating in the league, but when one does it would be pretty hard for him not to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Warriors boast the best defensive team in basketball despite playing in the loaded West with an offensive first point guard in a point guard heavy league. Green manages to guard three different spots on the court effectively. Paul Millsap would be my 2nd choice here, followed by Anthony Davis.

Coach of the Year

No one had the Hawks at 43-11
No one had the Hawks at 43-11

Mike Budenholzer, Hawks

Yeah, I don’t even think the city of Atlanta had the Hawks winning 43 games by the All-Star break. In fact, 43 games total was a realistic total. Another Gregg Popovich assistant of course. Budenholzer has some competition though. Steve Kerr of course deserves credit for taking the Warriors to the next level, and Jason Kidd went from the ousted laughing stock rookie head coach of the Nets to somehow having the Bucks…without Jabari Parker…in the midst of the playoffs.

               Still though, the Hawks are 43-11. What?

Most Valuable Player

Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with
Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with

James Harden, SG, Rockets

There are four cases to make for the MVP this season so far: Harden, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Let’s start with Curry, as to be him and Harden are 1a and 1b here. Curry has obviously been stupid good this seas. He’s shooting lights out (48-40-90%), he’s distributing the ball (7.9 APG), he’s leading the league in steals (2.2). He has a great MVP level WS/48 this season (.283, tied for the 18th highest in the 3 point shooting era with Shaq’s 2000 season). He’s on the best team in the toughest conference. So why didn’t I pick him? Harden’s close to him in most of these #s, better in some advanced metrics and is clearly working with a hell of a lot less. Curry has Thompson, Green, even Kerr as a coach. Harden has a banged up Dwight Howard who isn’t Dwight Howard anymore, Josh Smith who even when he is Josh Smith it’s not guaranteed it’s a good thing.

LeBron’s case seems dubious as this is arguably his worst season since his rookie year. But then you see the following:

Cavs With LeBron: 31-14

Cavs Without LeBron: 2-8

               That’s a big difference. I won’t count him out as if he has a monster last 27 games where the Cavs win 22 or 23 of them, voters will notice and forget about November and December.

               Anthony Davis’s case is insane. Despite what we mentioned about Curry’s WS/48…Davis actually has a higher one of .291 right now. That would be good for 12th in the 3 Point era. Only players above him? Lebron (’13, ’09, ’10, ’12), Jordan (’91, ’96, ’88, ’89), David Robinson (’94), Durant (’14), and Chris Paul (’09). That’s the list. It’s interesting to look at Robinson when thinking about Davis here. He too put up a lot of “holy shit” stats. But he only brought home one MVP as his teams were never really the best. In this case, the 27-26 Pelicans have to be better for Davis to win the MVP. Even if he has a record breaking PER. Yeah, it’s amazing that a team with Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon (three black hole All-Stars for sure) as their 2, 3 and 4 scorers is even remotely in the Western Conference playoff hunt. But that’s not enough.

               So James Harden. He too has a ridiculous WS/48 (.275). He actually has the highest offensive win shares of anyone in the league. He’s carrying this Rockets team. Dwight Howard isn’t a great player anymore. He’s on a team where only two guys have higher than a 16 PER (him and Howard). Yet this team is 36-17. He’s leading the league in scoring. He’s averaging a 27-6-7 with 2 steals a game. He is your MVP.