Tag Archives: matt ryan

Football

Super Bowl LI Prediction

We’re 5-5 heading into Super Bowl 51. This game means everything in regards to finishing with a over .500 record!

This also may go down as one of the all-time great Super Bowls…

Super Bowl 51: Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)

There are so many different directions this game could go in.

Elite offense vs. elite offense. Hungry first timers against a team that’s made seven of the last sixteen Superbowls with the same Head Coach/QB combo. Battle of MVP candidate QBs. New England’s D vs. an unstoppable WR.

Here’s what matters. The Matt Ryan led Atlanta Falcons are unstoppable on offense. No matter what double teams New England throws at Julio Jones he’s going to get his catches and his yards. That, combined with the Falcons running game combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman means the Falcons are getting their points when they have the ball.

But that’s the key. They need to have the ball. In a similar strategy that I thought Dallas would beat Green Bay with, New England can run the ball down the weak (we’ll get to that in a second) Falcons run defense and keep Atlanta off the field. And guess what, Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to score their points too. The Falcons defense has improved according to DVOA over the second half of the regular season, but it isn’t elite. They did bottle up Aaron Rodgers last week though. The run defense ranked dead last in DVOA though (for all you gambling people out there, LaGarrette Blount is a sneaky Super Bowl MVP candidate), and that’s going to be tough to overcome. Also, if you just consider Tom Brady’s 12 games in the regular season, New England’s offense was ranked above Atlanta’s.

I’ll make the call that this becomes the first ever Super Bowl that goes to overtime. But after making the mistake last week, I won’t pick against the Patriots in this situation.

Patriots 35, Falcons 32 (OT)

Football

2017 Conference Title Game Predictions

3-1 last week puts me at 5-3 for this playoffs. (20-10 all-time). Look at that, I didn’t believe in Aaron Rodgers again.

Green Bay Packers (12-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (12-5)

And I’m not quite sure I’m picking him here either. I was happy to see the Falcons live up to what I said last week about their game against the Seahawks. Matt Ryan and Co. have been disappointing for years now, but their amazing offense has felt like the real deal.

There are a lot of factors in play here. This is the last game in the Georgia Dome and you know the crowd will be insane. Matt Ryan has faced many playoff disappointments, so he’s hungry for a Super Bowl run. Atlanta’s offense was historically good, and it’s not like Green Bay is known for their defense. The Falcons beat the Pack by 1 back in the middle of the season, 33-32, winning the game in the last minute. Both Ryan and Rodgers were amazing in that game. We know Jordy Nelson is injured too, which hurts the Green Bay offense. Everything points to a shootout here, where the superior Atlanta firepower wins out.

But I really don’t want to pick against Aaron Rodgers again. I really don’t. He’s playing at an insane level right now. That whole narrative about him being a bad leader? Well, that’s went to hell. I can’t help but feels he’s going to pull this one out. It’ll be close, but whoever gets the ball last in this close one with at least 30 seconds left is probably going to win it, and if I had to pick a QB in this matchup it’s Rodgers

Packers 38, Falcons 35

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) @ New England Patriots (15-2)

Fun fact: when picking the Steelers last week, a big reason I came to that decision, other than the history of the Kansas City Chiefs choking away pretty much every important game with a coach who historically does poorly in the playoffs, is that I actually felt that the they are the best team in the AFC.

Let’s look at the Patriots. They had five games against playoff teams in the regular season: the Dolphins twice (won both), the Steelers (with Landry Jones at QB, a W) , the Texans (beat them 27-0, but lol Texans) and the Seahawks (loss). They also had wins over decent teams like the Ravens and Broncos. But I wouldn’t call their schedule remotely tough. So that 14-2 is a bit inflated. Despite the big record, I don’t feel super confident about the Patriots week in and week out. I guess I can’t completely explain this, but even the Texans hung around a little last week. Something feels off here.

Pittsburgh is hot. They’ve won nine straight. Their last loss was a close one against a really good Dallas Cowboy team. Le’Veon Bell is a monster. Roethlisberger is mostly playing well. They just beat the Chiefs again in Kansas City. Their defense has improved as the season progressed. This is a team that’s been there before.

Something just smells like upset.

Steelers 24, Patriots 21

Football

2017 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

2-2 last week (17-9 all-time). That’s what I get for believing in some Giants miracle and not believing in Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

At first I was all ready to take the Seahawks under my “Matt Ryan has always been subpar in the playoffs” + “Seattle has the experience factor in their favor”. But I had to change my mind here for a few reasons.

One, I have to give Matt Ryan his due. He finally played like the quarterback everyone has said he’s been over the past few years. He, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman have run an incredible offense here. If this were the Seahawks of a few years ago I’d say their defense could take Atlanta down…but this isn’t the same defense. I also don’t completely buy the Seahawks at this point. Yeah, them beating a banged up Lions team is no surprise, but the Falcons are a different story. Then again Seattle did down New England on the road back in November, so I might be underselling them.

You know what kind of teams Seattle reminds me of though? Those dynasty teams that are in their last few years where they are considered a threat by name, but they are probably losing to the hot new team. My favorite examples are the 97 Cowboys who dropped a Divisional Round game to the 2nd year Carolina Panthers and the 98 49ers, who lost to the Chris Chandler-Jamal Anderson Falcons. Their runs were just over. Just like Seattle’s probably is.

Plus maybe it was all Mike Smith’s fault.

Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

What is there to say really? You know that the Patriots beat the Texans 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at Quarterback, right?

Patriots 40, Texans 7

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)

I’m ready to pick against Rodgers again! There’s a little too much of “omg we underrated Aaron Rodgers he’s gonna tear through the players” and we forget the Giants were a bit shaky all year. Plus, Dallas has the best weapon possible against Rodgers: Ezekiel Elliott moving the chains and creating long, time killing drives. Aaron Rodgers can’t beat you when he’s on the bench. Do we really think this Packer defense is slowing down Elliott?

Cowboys 20, Packers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Andy Reid sure knows how to put together great regular seasons. I just can’t bring myself to believe in the Chiefs. Weather it’s the coach (Reid), the playoff history (so many disappointing Chiefs losses, many of them when they had a first round bye), the QB (Alex Smith is good and all, but never going to scare you) I just can’t do it. I correctly predicted three years ago that Andrew Luck would beat them and he did. I like this Steelers team a lot. They’re on fire. They took care of business last week. They have good DVOA ratings. They seem superior in every way. I just think they’re better. Only thing that can stop Big Ben and co. is the weather. Even then, is that going to do Kansas City any favors?

Steelers 24, Chiefs 17