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Football

2017 NFL Wildcard Predictions

Ok, Wildcard predictions! We went 9-2 two years ago and 6-5 last year for a total of 15-7. Let’s have a good year!

Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

What a depressing game. The Raiders looked primed for at minimum a showdown with the Patriots in these playoffs and maybe a Super Bowl run. Derek Carr then breaks his leg and now we’re here. Connor Cook inherits a solid running game, a great offensive line and good weapons at WR. On the flip side, this is his first NFL start ever. It’ll probably be bad…but who knows who what we’ll get!

But we know what we’re getting with Brock Osweiler. He stinks. And there isn’t much else in Houston to make me think they are going to really do anything against Oakland. Houston is ranked 29th in total DVOA, 30th in offense. Their defense is still considered Top 10, but when they are probably scoring three points it won’t matter.

Raiders 13, Texans 3

Detroit Lions (9-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Sure, Seattle isn’t the same team they’ve been over the past few years and Detroit looked good this year, but this has a big Russell Wilson game all over it. Speaking of DVOA, Detroit’s defense ranked dead last. Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the same since his finger injury either. There’s just nothing here to make me think Detroit is going to win a shootout against the Seahawks in Seattle. And the Seahawks will be scoring big points.

Seahawks 37, Lions 17

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Miami’s an old school team that can run the ball and pound away at a defense. And they beat Pittsburgh in October doing just that as Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards. I don’t think the Matt Moore starting deal is going to hurt Miami that much…I mean it’s not ideal but it isn’t like Ryan Tannehill is some great QB. Miami finally seems to have a good direction under new Head Coach Adam Gase. There’s a lot to like there.

But I am taking the Steelers. They looked great down the stretch (against subpar competition but still) and do have a couple of impressive wins this season. The Steelers feel like a good team hitting their stride. Sure, momentum isn’t everything, especially when you’re beating up on the Browns, but on paper they are the better team and have experience. It’ll be close though.

Steelers 22, Dolphins 21

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Everyone is counting out the Giants this post-season. A lot of people off the Eli Manning train. Aaron Rodgers is hot and just led the Packers to what looked to be an unlikely division title. Where have I seen this script before?

The Giants should not be slept on. Their defense is great and probably a lot better off to play in a cold weather game than the Packers offense is. What am I missing? We’ve seen this twice before.

And there’s this. Mid-season, there was all this talk about how dysfunctional the Packers were and how Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a great leader. The Packers then reel off six straight wins, one of them quite impressive against the Seahawks…but otherwise against teams with real weaknesses the Packers could exploit (Jaguars, Texans and Bears are all bad, we went over Detroit’s terrible D and home against a disappointing Vikings team). Not really buying it. Not sure I should be buying the Giants either, but again, I feel like I’ve seen this script before.

Giants 27, Packers 17

 

 

Football

NFL 2016 Playoff Predictions! Wildcard Round (And A Look Back At the Season Predictions)

Let’s look back at our Season Predictions to see how we did! Actual records are in parentheses.

NFC East

Giants: 11-5 (6-10)
Cowboys: 10-6 (4-12)
Eagles 9-7 (7-9)
Redskins 6-10 (9-7)

Man was this division bad. Washington actually pulled it off at 9-7. Tony Romo got hurt and that was that for Dallas, and Tom Coughlin and Chip Kelly lost their jobs.

NFC North

Vikings: 11-5 (11-5)
Packers: 11-5 (10-6)
Lions: 8-8 (7-9)
Bears: 7-9 (6-10)

Pretty much nailed this division as I was only a game off with Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago (but we got the order correct). I knew Minnesota would be better.

NFC South

Panthers: 10-6 (15-1)
Saints: 8-8 (7-9)
Falcons: 7-9 (8-8)
Buccaneers: 4-12 (6-10)

Close with this one too, although Carolina did a lot better than 10-6. Atlanta started super hot then did as the Falcons do and faded when it mattered.

NFC West

Seahawks: 12-4 (10-6)
Rams: 6-10 (7-9)
Cardinals: 5-11 (13-3)
49ers: 4-12 (5-11)

Carson Palmer at 35 returned from his injured ACL as a MVP candidate, so I really missed there. Everything else played out normally.

AFC East

Patriots: 12-4 (12-4)
Bills: 9-7 (8-8)
Dolphins: 7-9 (6-10)
Jets: 6-10 (10-6)

Perhaps I should have had more confidence in my Jets despite that they blew a playoff opportunity at the end. Despite the good records this division feels weaker that it looks.

AFC North

Ravens: 11-5 (5-11)
Steelers: 9-7 (10-6)
Bengals: 6-10 (12-4)
Browns: 3-13 (3-13)

Really underrated the Bengals here. I thought they’d fall off after season after season of an early round playoff exit, but that didn’t happen at all. I also thought Baltimore due to good coaching would get back on track, but injuries never let them have a chance (they didn’t seem that great when healthy either).

AFC South

Colts: 12-4 (8-8)
Texans: 6-10 (9-7)
Titans: 5-11 (3-13)
Jaguars: 3-13 (5-11)

I don’t even know what happened to the Colts, but it’s clear the team needs to build around Andrew Luck (although they somehow won more games with Matt Hasselbeck. Weird season.). Houston basically did the same thing as last year but this time it won them the division.

AFC West

Chiefs: 11-5 (11-5)
Chargers: 11-5 (4-12)
Broncos: 10-6 (12-4)
Raiders: 6-10 (7-9)

I almost got the story right for this division. It did look like Denver’s QB woes and change in coaching philosophy was going to coast them the division, only they pulled it off in the very last game. I absolutely missed on the Chargers here.

For the record, Cam Newton should be the league MVP. If that wasn’t obvious.

Ok, Wildcard predictions! We went 9-2 last year so matching that would be an accomplishment!

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

First, an odd note about all the Wildcard games this season. All the road teams are arguably better. How crazy is that?

Kansas City has been the hottest team in the league really, winning 10 straight games to get to the playoffs. They beat Houston Week 1 in Houston for whatever that’s worth. The KC defense should theoretically eat Brian Hoyer…or worse, if Hoyer goes down again Brandon Weeden…alive. Andy Reid’s known to make some playoff mistakes and usually his team (or the Chiefs historically for some reason) shouldn’t be trusted in the playoffs. But I mean, we’re one bad hit away from Brandon Weeden here!

The Texans’ best chance is that they shut down that 5-20 yard passing zone (which they do well, apparently) and J.J. Watt harasses Alex Smith all day. That’s possible! Too bad Kansas City probably only needs about 20 points to win this one.

Chiefs 20, Texans 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) @ Cinncinati Bengals (12-4)

So how much does Andy Dalton matter here? Even though the Steelers beat an A.J. McCarron-led Bengals team in Week 14, it wasn’t like McCarron was awful there or Ben Roethlisberger was all that great. And while McCarron hasn’t been amazing he’s been fine not taking chances and not turning the ball over. Did you know the Steelers defense thrives on takeaways? If McCarron plays safe and Jeremy Hill has a big game on the ground, it should be tough for Pittsburgh play well defensively. This is the style of attack I think we’ll see from the Bengals considering we’re getting a zero degree game.

Still, Big Ben could win this game with some big plays on his own. I think the weather conditions and whether or not Martavis Bryant wakes up will be the best chance for Pittsburgh. But I don’t think it’ll be enough. DeAngelo Williams going down left Pittsburgh with pure hopelessness on the ground and in those freezing games sometimes that matters. That, being on the road and Big Ben with only a 1:3 TD:INT ratio against the Bengals this year are all big enough factors that should hold back Pittsburgh.

Plus, it’s not like a questionable QB never beat the Steelers in the playoffs recently. I had to get a Tim Tebow reference in there somehow.

Bengals 20, Steelers 18

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Speaking of freezing games, this may rival the coldest playoff game in history or something close. And while I like Teddy Bridgewater more than most, I think he’s getting eaten alive here once Seattle slows down Adrian Peterson. Seattle, easily the hottest team in the league right now, is going to get beat by Bridgewater in -7 degree weather after they stack the box against Peterson (this is what Kam Chancellor’s for). Not going to happen.

And Seattle gets Beast Mode back.

Vikings one hope: the Rams always seem to beat Washington and did so in Week 16…and that’s like the poor man’s Vikings right?

Seahawks 21, Vikings 3

Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Washington Redskins (9-7)

What the heck happened to the Green Bay Packers. Injuries to Jordy Nelson and Sam Shields just killed them on both sides of the ball down the stretch, eh. The Shields one matters here as this should be a shootout now.

Crazy stat: Kirk Cousins actually had just as good a season as Aaron Rodgers. 31 TD, 8 INT, 3,821 Yards, 6.7 YPA, 60% Completion for Rodgers this year. Cousins went for 29 TD, 11 INT, 4,166 Yards, 7.7 YPA, 70% Completion. How crazy is that. Of course, Rodgers did this will most of his main weapons down or falling apart. So both of these teams will score a lot this weekend, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this but I’m going to ride Cousins and the Redskins here. The Packers just looked bad the last two months. They lost to Detroit once, beat them a 2nd time because of some crazy Hail Mary, lost to the Bears and are coming off getting spanked by Arizona and losing the division to Minnesota in Green Bay. Sure, Washington hasn’t beaten anyone significant this year, but I really like how they played down the stretch to win their division and make the playoffs. It’s rare that I go with the momentum pick, but Green Bay just doesn’t look good.

Redskins 35, Packers 30