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Football

Super Bowl LI Prediction

We’re 5-5 heading into Super Bowl 51. This game means everything in regards to finishing with a over .500 record!

This also may go down as one of the all-time great Super Bowls…

Super Bowl 51: Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)

There are so many different directions this game could go in.

Elite offense vs. elite offense. Hungry first timers against a team that’s made seven of the last sixteen Superbowls with the same Head Coach/QB combo. Battle of MVP candidate QBs. New England’s D vs. an unstoppable WR.

Here’s what matters. The Matt Ryan led Atlanta Falcons are unstoppable on offense. No matter what double teams New England throws at Julio Jones he’s going to get his catches and his yards. That, combined with the Falcons running game combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman means the Falcons are getting their points when they have the ball.

But that’s the key. They need to have the ball. In a similar strategy that I thought Dallas would beat Green Bay with, New England can run the ball down the weak (we’ll get to that in a second) Falcons run defense and keep Atlanta off the field. And guess what, Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to score their points too. The Falcons defense has improved according to DVOA over the second half of the regular season, but it isn’t elite. They did bottle up Aaron Rodgers last week though. The run defense ranked dead last in DVOA though (for all you gambling people out there, LaGarrette Blount is a sneaky Super Bowl MVP candidate), and that’s going to be tough to overcome. Also, if you just consider Tom Brady’s 12 games in the regular season, New England’s offense was ranked above Atlanta’s.

I’ll make the call that this becomes the first ever Super Bowl that goes to overtime. But after making the mistake last week, I won’t pick against the Patriots in this situation.

Patriots 35, Falcons 32 (OT)

Football

2017 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

2-2 last week (17-9 all-time). That’s what I get for believing in some Giants miracle and not believing in Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

At first I was all ready to take the Seahawks under my “Matt Ryan has always been subpar in the playoffs” + “Seattle has the experience factor in their favor”. But I had to change my mind here for a few reasons.

One, I have to give Matt Ryan his due. He finally played like the quarterback everyone has said he’s been over the past few years. He, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman have run an incredible offense here. If this were the Seahawks of a few years ago I’d say their defense could take Atlanta down…but this isn’t the same defense. I also don’t completely buy the Seahawks at this point. Yeah, them beating a banged up Lions team is no surprise, but the Falcons are a different story. Then again Seattle did down New England on the road back in November, so I might be underselling them.

You know what kind of teams Seattle reminds me of though? Those dynasty teams that are in their last few years where they are considered a threat by name, but they are probably losing to the hot new team. My favorite examples are the 97 Cowboys who dropped a Divisional Round game to the 2nd year Carolina Panthers and the 98 49ers, who lost to the Chris Chandler-Jamal Anderson Falcons. Their runs were just over. Just like Seattle’s probably is.

Plus maybe it was all Mike Smith’s fault.

Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

What is there to say really? You know that the Patriots beat the Texans 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at Quarterback, right?

Patriots 40, Texans 7

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)

I’m ready to pick against Rodgers again! There’s a little too much of “omg we underrated Aaron Rodgers he’s gonna tear through the players” and we forget the Giants were a bit shaky all year. Plus, Dallas has the best weapon possible against Rodgers: Ezekiel Elliott moving the chains and creating long, time killing drives. Aaron Rodgers can’t beat you when he’s on the bench. Do we really think this Packer defense is slowing down Elliott?

Cowboys 20, Packers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Andy Reid sure knows how to put together great regular seasons. I just can’t bring myself to believe in the Chiefs. Weather it’s the coach (Reid), the playoff history (so many disappointing Chiefs losses, many of them when they had a first round bye), the QB (Alex Smith is good and all, but never going to scare you) I just can’t do it. I correctly predicted three years ago that Andrew Luck would beat them and he did. I like this Steelers team a lot. They’re on fire. They took care of business last week. They have good DVOA ratings. They seem superior in every way. I just think they’re better. Only thing that can stop Big Ben and co. is the weather. Even then, is that going to do Kansas City any favors?

Steelers 24, Chiefs 17

 

 

Football

2016 NFL Conference Finals Predictions!

We went 3-1 last week as all the home team pulled it out (after all the road teams won the Wildcard Round). We’re 5-3 for the playoffs. I think both of these are relatively east selections so let’s get to it.

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-4)

Look, Denver was losing to a beaten up Pittsburgh Steelers team before Fitzgerald Tousaaint fumbled and Denver finally put a TD drive together. This Patriots team (which is healthy, no less) is way better than that beaten up Steelers team. Blame whoever you want or whatever, Peyton Manning’s arm, Bronco WRs dropping passes, New England is the better team and should be able to avenge their loss to Denver in the regular season.

Patriots 24, Broncos 13

Arizona Cardinals (14-3) @ Carolina Panthers (16-1)

I think the weather plays a big factor here. It’s going to be freezing a day after a lot of snow. Carolina proved they were no fluke as they horsewhipped Seattle in the first half last week (before going into the deep freeze in the 2nd half). Arizona was disappointing last week as they barely survived Green Bay at home. The Panthers are the best team in football and after watching last week I don’t see the Cardinals, great as they seem, beating the Panthers in Carolina in a cold weather game.

Panthers 31, Cardinals 21

 

 

Football

2015 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2015 NFL Season! For a few years parity has actually been escaping the NFL although no one has seemed to notice or care. The NFL is more popular than ever and if recent events involving Commissioner Roger Goodell doesn’t dent that popularity than nothing will. Back to the parity point, for years many claimed that parity, that any team could win and perhaps go to the Super Bowl any year, was a big reason for the NFL’s popularity. Only the last three years have shown otherwise. The AFC Title game for the past four years have been Patriots-Ravens (2012 postseason), Patriots-Ravens again (2013), Patriots-Broncos (2014) and Patriots-Colts (2015). On the NFC side it has been 49ers-Giants (2012), 49ers-Falcons (2013), 49ers-Seahawks (2014) and Seahawks-Packers (2015). It isn’t even as if the Packers and Colts or even Giants were new to this either. So while another team may surprisingly win the division or even sneak into the Conference Title game, the days of the surprising 1999 Rams or 2003 Panthers seem to be over. That’s fine, as it makes things easier to predict.

With that being said…RDT’s 2015 NFL Predictions.

NFC East

nflpredeli

Giants: 11-5
Cowboys: 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 6-10

It has been a few years since the Giants last surprised us with a Super Bowl run. While I don’t necessarily think a Super Bowl is in the cards this year this is the first time in a few years where I think the Giants aren’t being talked about enough (and I live in NY!). The Giants were a slightly better team than expected last year (7.5 Pythagorean Wins against 6 actual wins). With Odell Beckham giving Eli Manning his best weapon in his career, Eli just has to hope that whatever’s left of his offensive line can keep him protected. For two years now Eli’s O-Line has been decimated by injuries over the last couple of years and some of that lingers today. If he can get the ball out, Giants will have a chance on that side of the ball. The other thing going in the Giants’ favor is the absolute dysfunction of Washington and Philadelphia. The Redskins had their whole Robert Griffin III drama and now Kirk Cousins is starting, so that’s a mess waiting to happen. Philly has all the talent in the world, but Chip Kelly’s trade for, then lack of faith of, Sam Bradford sounds like a problem waiting to happen. I really think the ship has sailed on Kelly. What seemed revolutionary a couple of years ago now looks like a coach with too much roster power making crazy moves with a gimmick offense. I guess we’ll see. Dallas should be fine…they were arguably a play away from the NFC Title game last year…but I’ve been far past completely trusting Dallas and Tony Romo at this point.

NFC North

nflpredteddy

Vikings: 11-5
Packers: 11-5
Lions: 8-8
Bears: 7-9

It’s not just the return of Adrian Peterson, which may not even work out anyway (2,000 career caries), but that Minnesota is a young team that should only get better. They were 7-9 anyway without their best player. Part of that is Teddy Bridgewater and how well he played in his last six starts last year. According to Grantland, Teddy was 12 in QBR, completed 69% of his passes for 1,440 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTS. Best of all, it was an improvement over his first six starts. If Bridgewater improves and Peterson is still a monster, that’s suddenly a super dangerous combination. Green Bay is always going to be there as long as Aaron Rodgers plays quarterback, and him alone is enough to make Green Bay a Super Bowl contender (they almost got there last year). While they won’t fall that much, Detroit losing Ndamukong Suh is going to hurt too badly for them to be able to deal with Green Bay or Minnesota. Their offense should be fine unless Calvin Johnson regresses. The Bears should be okay, unless Jay Cutler is completely done.

NFC South

nflprednewton

Panthers: 10-6
Saints: 8-8
Falcons: 7-9
Buccaneers: 4-12

This division is still a mess and really any of the four teams can take it. I like Carolina because despite not being the most talented team, Coach Ron Rivera’s transformation into “Riverboat Ron” (leading to taking chances on 4th down and such) and Cam Newton’s play gives Carolina a shot to win any game. Atlanta may be more talented, and who knows, perhaps the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection will be unstoppable this year, but I’ve never truly believed in Matt Ryan as a top tier quarterback. He always seemed like the guy with every single weapon at his disposal (Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Michael Turner). Their defense was horrid last year as well. Atlanta’s just going to have to prove it to me. I also think I’m over the Saints. I love Drew Brees, but losing Graham is going to hurt and I think their peak is over. And let’s give Jameis Winston a year to see what he’s got first.

NFC West

nflpredsherman

Seahawks: 12-4
Rams: 6-10
Cardinals: 5-11
49ers: 4-12

Even though I think Seattle is slowly on the way down they could easily be just fine and their division is weak anyway. I can’t find a powerhouse in the NFC that’s going take the regular season crown away from them. The Rams are a fun choice I guess, but I’m not going to believe in Nick Foles at QB. While they upset Seattle last year and have a good defense I need to see more before I go in with them. The Cardinals are a prime example of a team to fall apart. Without Carson Palmer they couldn’t score a point, and now we’re getting back a 35 year old Palmer coming off a torn ACL. Palmer’s been done as a top tier QB for years and I think 2014 was just an outlier. Then again, perhaps Arizona just needs him to be merely average. We’ll find out. I assume two people retired from the 49ers as I was writing this. I’m not putting any stock whatsoever in them. You don’t drop Jim Harbaugh and get better.

I just can’t find a way to bet against Seattle making the Super Bowl again. Unless there’s a crazy Giants team (don’t rule this out…happens every few years apparently) or Aaron Rodgers really is the GOAT (don’t rule this out either, although losing Jordy Nelson makes it so much harder on him) I’m going to have to pick Seattle here. Even if they are getting hit with “The Disease of More”.

AFC East

nflpredbrady

Patriots: 12-4
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 6-10

An angry Patriots team is a scary Patriots team. While some key losses may seem to hurt them (Revis), you’re going to have to find a really good argument to convince me that New England isn’t going to make at least their fifth straight AFC Title game.  Remember how well Brady played after there were jokes that he was done and Jimmy Garoppolo was going to start? How did that turn out for the NFL? The Bills will be decent because Rex Ryan can get the best out of a smashmouth football team, but he’s still in the wrong era and Buffalo’s QB situation is appallingly bad. Miami seems to be a popular choice to surprise, but they have no secondary and Ryan Tannenhill is their quarterback. The Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick running their offense. So unless the defense wants to carry them like they did for Geno, it’s just not going to happen.

AFC North

nflpredflacco

Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 6-10
Browns: 3-13

The Ravens have some red flags…mainly their only legit WR is an aging Steve Smith and the running game looks like it has a lot to be desired. That’s okay though, their defense should carry them to at least the 9-7 range alone, and I’m more of a Joe Flacco fan than not at the moment. I think the Steelers are a bit weaker overall (and have a tough schedule…they play teams like the Colts where Baltimore doesn’t). The Bengals run of one and dones are going to end eventually, and until they move on from Andy Dalton I’m going to pick this season for that. You can’t help but feel bad for the Browns. Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel? Maybe Manziel figures it out. Don’t sleep on the Ravens though…you always have to give a real chance to well coached teams.

AFC South

nflpredluck

Colts: 12-4
Texans: 6-10
Titans: 5-11
Jaguars: 3-13

This is simple to figure out. The Jaguars are still a mess. Unless Mariotta is great right away the Titans will be bad once again, and the Texans somehow downgraded from Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (although it wouldn’t surprise me if J.J. Watt somehow won 10 games by himself at this point). That leaves the Andrew Luck Colts. I don’t think the Colts are as good as everyone says…they’re right now a popular Super Bowl pick. People are forgetting that the only reason the Colts got by Denver in the playoffs last year was because Peyton Manning was hurt. Otherwise you had a Denver-NE rematch going. Colts will be fine, Luck might be better (which is why their record doesn’t fall), but they’re still behind New England and Denver.

AFC West

nflpredcharles

Chiefs: 11-5
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 10-6
Raiders: 6-10

Put a big asterisk here, because we don’t know what Peyton Manning we are getting. Is he healthy? Is he still hurt from last year? I think that fear combined with the changes made coaching wise will hurt Denver a bit…although a 10-6 Broncos team can absolutely make the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs are a stereotypical Andy Reid team. They’ll probably win the division and lose in the opening round to Denver. I’ve always been a bit of a Philip Rivers fan and thought he played well the last two years. I think this may be San Diego’s last shot at anything. Remember last year they started 5-1 and just had a rough schedule down the stretch.

Ultimately I see a rematch in the Super Bowl. While there are some teams that I think can threaten Seattle and New England, I feel there are too many flaws out there for them to overcome their weaknesses. I think Seattle wins this time though.

 

 

 

 

 

Football

2014-2015 NFL Divisional Round Predictions!

Went 3-1 last week. That Ravens-Steelers game was always going to be the toughest to call.

Anyway, Divisional Round, let’s do it!

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The Ravens won a frigid game in Pittsburgh where they shut down the Steeler run game (that was missing La’Veon Bell) and had Joe Flacco continue his run as one of the best postseason quarterbacks of all time (how crazy does that sound?)

Does that mean they are beating New England? Maybe…

The Patriots and Ravens have arguably been the two most successful NFL franchises of the past 15 years. The first notable battle between the two though actually took place during the regular season of the Patriots perfect run. The Ravens got close to being the only team to beat the Patriots during that regular season. Two years later the Ravens shocked the Patriots in Foxboro by beating up Tom Brady and having Ray Rice run all over them. If you told me the Bill Belichick-Brady era was over right there I would have believed you. That’s how bad it looked. Two years after that the Patriots and Ravens met again in the AFC Title game, where a missed field goal made the difference for New England. The very next year they met in the AFC Title game again, but this time took care of business and won the Super Bowl a couple of weeks afterwards.

You’ve got two of the best (if not the best) coaches in the NFL in Belichick and John Harbaugh. A surefire Hall of Fame Quarterback in Brady against one of the best playoff QBs there is in Flacco. And you have two teams that have a genuine rivalry going at it once again. It’s going to be a tough game of course, and it will help the Ravens that the weather will just be like it was in Pittsburgh last week.

Forget all the stats though. I think a fire was lit under New England’s ass this season after week 4. I think something happened to Belichick when he got asked if Tom Brady was going to be benched. I think something got to Brady. I don’t see this Patriots team going quietly. That and this is the best Patriots D we’ve seen in some time as well. Close as always, but I can’t help but feel New England is out for blood.

Patriots 24, Ravens 17

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

This is going to be short.

Don’t let the midseason distractions fool you. The Seahawks are still football’s best team. They were absolutely rolling at the end of the season. Once in their last six games did a team manage to score double digits against them (Eagles, 14). The Seahawks also have some wins against legitimately good teams: they beat Green Bay and Denver early on. They had a top 10 ranked offense and the best defense in football by traditional means. DVOA wise, they were top 5 in both. Seattle is the team to beat. Period.

The Panthers didn’t even look that great last week. Somehow the Ryan Lindley led Cardinals actually hung in the game for a while, even though they were led by Ryan Lindley. The Panthers are an okay team. Seattle is a great team.

I think Seattle wants to make a statement too.

Seahawks 45, Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) @ Green Bay Packers (12-4)

One of the more interesting statistics here: Dallas was 8-0 on the road this season, Green Bay was 8-0 at home.

I wrote last week that this is Dallas’ best team in years due to some convincing wins and overall great play from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Officiating controversies aside, I thought it was impressive Dallas won last week against Detroit with Murray being held to 75 yards and a 3.75 average.

The thing is, Green Bay is just better than Detroit. Aaron Rodgers might have locked up a MVP award this season and his gutsy performance against Detroit in Week 17 just showed he’s at the top of his game. Overall the Packers are better offensively and defensively than Dallas, although neither has a particularly strong defense. Could Dallas rack up some points on Green Bay? Sure. But I think there’s a better chance Green Bay racks up points on the Cowboys.

Here’s what Dallas needs to bank on. Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury stemming from the game against Detroit in Week 17. It’s a cold weather game, which won’t help Rodgers. If Dallas can get to Rodgers, they may be able to turn this one in their favor. On their side, Murray needs to run the ball right through Green Bay’s defense. And Tony Romo just can’t make any big mistakes.

This would be a good game plan…but I think Aaron Rodgers is too tough to lose that way. Sure the calf is torn…but it was injured against Detroit too, right?

Packers 31, Cowboys 23

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ Denver Broncos (12-4) 

Come on, we all knew Andrew the Giant was taking care of business against the Bengals. There’s nothing else really to say about the Colts. I know football is a team sport, but if there was one guy in the NFL right now that is carrying his team it is Andrew Luck. I can’t imagine the Colts being a playoff team without Luck. They have by far the worst rushing attack in football. Their defense is suspect. And a lot of it doesn’t matter because of Luck.

The Colts got smacked in a similar Divisional Round game last year when Brady (and really, LaGarrett Blount) and the Patriots scored 43 and beat down the Colts before they had a chance to make anything happen. Same idea here right? The Colts are up against an aging but still great and legendary quarterback in Peyton Manning, and a running back that seemingly came out of nowhere in C.J. Anderson. The difference is that per DVOA, the Broncos were top 5 on both sides of the ball. Everything for this game points to Denver winning this one with ease.

But…

Well, what’s with Denver’s offense change? How are the Denver Broncos, with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time who was throwing 400 yard games with no problem earlier in the season, suddenly taking a rush first approach with C.J. Anderson? I understand that Anderson was looked nice…but what in the world? I think something’s wrong with Peyton. It might have just been a moment. We’ve all read the stories of his arm being weak. He’s 38 years old. He had serious neck surgery a few years ago. I can’t explain why the Broncos on offense are suddenly relying so much on C.J. Anderson. Maybe it was to rest Peyton. I don’t know. Combine this with the fact that Peyton Manning is one of the most inconsistent big game playoff QBs ever, and suddenly I think a real upset is in the making.

This is one of those perfect scenarios in sports. Peyton against his old team. His successor lighting the league up. I think we remember this game as the day Andrew Luck truly arrived and we know Peyton’s true best is behind him. Bold I know. But I think it’s time.

Colts 24, Broncos 21