Tag Archives: leonard

Basketball

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 2!

So long Houston, LA, Memphis, Dallas, Detroit, Indiana, Charlotte and Boston. Boston and LA just had a rough deal with injuries. Dallas just doesn’t have enough talent and their best player is just about at the end. It’s too early for Detroit. Indiana had the series in the palm of their hand, but lineups without Paul George were just too awful for Indiana to survive with. George is like the poor man’s LeBron, which really isn’t intended as an insult. Memphis gets some credit for getting to the playoffs with all of their injuries, but this is a team that’s window has closed and is on its way down. Houston of course, is an embarrassment this year and that only continued with their poor playoff showing. Anyway, series wise we went 5-3 last round. Let’s see how we do here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

Portland got a huge gift in the first round with both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin went down. In fact, they became the 2nd team ever to come back down 0-2 when they lost both of those games by 20+ points. But you gotta win them however you can.

The Stephen Curry injury might allow Portland to sneak one, and of course I always want to give Damian Lillard a game where he goes off (like he did against the Warriors during the regular season). Take a bow Portland, you’ve gotten a lot farther than anyone gave you credit for.

Warriors in 6

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)

Too bad I can’t change the amount of games right now after the Game 1 beat down San Antonio put on OKC.

I think Gregg Popovich figured out the Thunder years ago to be honest (while Billy Donovan’s still in his rookie year, remember). They need to find a way to cover LeMarcus Aldridge from mid range and hope Kawhi Leonard can’t cover Westbrook and/or Durant. Unfortunately as Game 1 told, Leonard absolutely can shut down Westbrook. Spurs are too deep and too good and it needs to be remembered that they were a historical team too this year.

Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34)

Ever think that LeBron gets bored of beating these Eastern Conference teams? He’s 8-0 against the Hawks in his playoff career, and last year he basically won 4 in a row by himself. The Cavs are better this year while the Hawks clearly aren’t. Only storyline here is if the Cavs can convince me they can win the title this year.

Cavs in 4

#2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. #3 Miami Heat (48-34)

Yeah still don’t believe in the Raptors at all. They barely survived a one man Paul George team. Miami beat Charlotte just as I thought they would, in 7 because one of their guys made big shots (Wade in Game 6). I think this goes 7 though, but Miami steals it in Toronto.

Heat in 7

Basketball

NBA Predictions 15-16

                It’s almost time for another season of NBA basketball. The Pre-Season is usually the last time fans can have a realistic outlook for how their team will perform. While the NBA has traditionally lacked parity, several roster changes and several young stars making the leap allowed a Final Four involving four teams that hadn’t made a Final Four in years (Cleveland last made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2009 thanks to the return of LeBron, Atlanta has to go back to 1970 before they were that close to the Finals, Golden State’s last Conference Finals was way back in 1976, and the emergence of Stephen Curry was a big reason why, and Houston last got to the WCF in 1997, led by the emerging James Harden). Once again the off-season had big pieces moving all around. That, combined with the emergence of some new stars (read: Anthony Davis) plus the return of some others (Kevin Durant) makes this another unpredictable NBA season…

Right?

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 03: Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Boston Celtics carries the ball against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first quarter at TD Garden on April 3, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Atlantic Division
Celtics: 46-36 (5)
Nets: 35-47
Raptors: 34-48
Knicks 32-50
76ers: 21-61

                I swear each year this division gets worse and worse. There are two intriguing teams here. First we have who I predict will win the division, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics honestly are primed for another dynasty with a bunch of Brooklyn Nets picks and even a Dallas Mavericks 1st too. Isaiah Thomas’ trade to Boston last year led to a 21-4 season finish and a playoff berth. Adding David Lee will only help the offense. The Raptors had made the playoffs  two straight years and bring back potentially a more dangerous team than the last two years (adding DeMarre Carroll) but there was a lot of doubt in Coach Dwane Casey after a disappointing playoff exit and I think the Raptors go downhill until there’s a switch. The Nets are a mess, the Knicks need a huge Carmelo year and really I think they’re going to trade him anyway as he got his money, and the 76ers are like a PS2 Madden Franchise hoarding picks all over the place. Problem is, unlike Madden, those picks haven’t been guaranteed to be anything yet.

butlernba2k16

Central Division
Bulls: 54-28 (1)
Cavaliers: 52-30 (2)
Pacers: 44-38 (7)
Bucks: 38-44 (8)
Pistons: 35-47

                Derrick Rose problems aside, I think the Bulls will improve from the coaching switch. Tom Thibodeau tired players throughout the season and played a defensive heavy system. Fred Hoiberg should open up the offense and rest guys appropriately. It’s like the poor man’s version of The Warriors switching from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr last season. I expect Jimmy Butler to have a huge season as well. The only thing that will derail the Bulls will be if Rose and Butler have issues. The Cavs are the Cavs…which is a great thing for them. Irving’s injuries and the need to rest LeBron a bit will cost them some wins, but at this point it’s clear it doesn’t really matter as long as LeBron is good for the playoffs. The Pacers lost tons of pieces and even added Monta Ellis, but Paul George returning should be enough for 44 wins in the East, even if he plays the 4. The Bucks might be better than 38-44, but I think adding Greg Monroe will clog the pain and actually add problems for Jabari Parker. As long as Reggie Jackson starts at point guard for Detriot, the longer they’ll be stuck in mediocrity unless Andre Drummond goes off (and don’t rule that out).

Miami Heat's Chris Bosh shoots a free throw during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 11, 2012. The Grizzlies won 104-86. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)

Southeast Division
Heat: 49-33 (3)
Hawks: 48-34 (4)
Wizards: 45-37 (6)
Hornets: 35-47
Magic: 29-53

                Miami should be able to reach the expectations they had last year post-LeBron. As long as Hassan Whiteside wasn’t a fluke, Chris Bosh is healthy, Dwyane Wade realizes he’s not who he once was and Goran Dragic gets to play his game they should be good. The Hawks lost Carroll but should be fine. 60 wins was a bit on the luck side last year. Washington has yet to tell me why they’ll be improving, and losing a veteran like Paul Pierce is only going to hurt. Could John Wall and Bradley Beal bring their games to the next level? Maybe, but I think they both actually have limited upsides and we’re close to them already. The Hornets would be a lot worse if they weren’t in the East. Orlando has a lot of young talent but has a long ways to go.

durantnba2k16

Northwest Division
Thunder: 51-31 (5)
Utah Jazz: 44-38 (8)
Trail Blazers: 31-51
Nuggets: 29-53
Timberwolves: 18-64

                Of course, the return of a healthy Kevin Durant will be a huge deal, and Russell Westbrook played like a MVP candidate last year, but I sense that won’t work out too great here. 51-31 isn’t a bad record, but all the fears fans had in the past about Westbrook taking too many shots and Durant not taking enough will manifest this season now that Westbrook experienced the year he had last year. Yes Westbrook led the league in scoring last year. Yes he was ridiculous. But he’s not Kevin Durant. The Thunder have serious depth problems with Dion Waiters potentially in a starting role as well. My pick for the young team to improve is Utah. The Stifle Tower and Derrick Favors were pretty good last year. They were 19-10 after the All-Star Break. I think Damian Lillard is a dark horse for leading the league in scoring this year…to go along with 40% shooting. Denver’s pretty much a mess and will probably trade off all of their pieces, and Minnesota needs a couple of years still.

cp3nba2k16

Pacific Division
Clippers: 62-20 (1)
Warriors: 59-23 (3)
Suns: 33-49
Kings: 33-49
Lakers: 30-52

                My big prediction: this is the year the Clippers have a dominant regular season, and Chris Paul actually wins his first MVP trophy. When Stephen Curry (rightfully) won the ’15 MVP with a 23-7, that opened up the doors for someone like Paul. Golden State will be right there of course, unless Curry gets hurt. The Suns added Tyson Chandler, which made little sense at Phoenix is a team that needs to rebuild and won’t be contending. I see more George Karl-DeMarcus Cousins problems in Sacramento. Let’s be honest, the Lakers need to rebuild at this point. I think D’Angelo Russell is my Rookie of the Year pick though, unless Kobe never lets him touch the ball.

hardennba2k16

Southwest Division
Rockets: 60-22 (2)
Spurs: 52-30 (4)
Grizzlies: 48-34 (6)
Pelicans: 45-37 (7)
Mavericks: 38-44

                James Harden should only get better (and he was actually my MVP pick last year) and Dwight Howard has somehow become underrated. The Ty Lawson upgrade, as long as his head is on straight, is going to be huge for Houston. Everyone seems to think the Spurs are going to control the league with LaMarcus Aldridge joining, but in reality it’s going to take some time for him to get used to the Spurs system after being the go to in Portland. Still…I think it works out by April. The Grizzlies are the same team they are every year. Anthony Davis is amazing, but the reality is his team is awful around him and guys like Tyreke Evans only looked better last year because of Davis’ presence. Davis is going to be in that Davis Robinson position for a while. As much as I love Dirk Nowitzki…Dallas just lost too much with Chandler and who knows what Chandler Parsons will be like this year.

                But I did mention that I think the Spurs figure it out by April, and when they do they’ll get through this as tough as ever West and defeat Cleveland to win the franchise’s sixth Championship.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - JUNE 15: TIm Duncan #21 of the San Antonio Spurs poses for a portrait with the Larry O'Brien Trophy after defeating the Miami Heat in Game Five of the 2014 NBA Finals on June 15, 2014 at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2014 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

We’ve just completed one of the better seasons in NBA storylines. For the first time in what seems like a while, the NBA Playoffs are moderately unpredictable. There are two teams in the East with a realistic chance of making the Finals, then any one of five (sorry Portland) can do the same. I could even think of conceivable longshot scenarios for the remaining three teams in the West. We’ve had MVP caliber seasons from four different players (Westbrook, Harden, Curry and Davis), and a semi-MVP season (from LeBron). It’s going to be a fun playoffs and we’re just going to dive into round 1 here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)

It’s really hard to make the case for the Pelicans here. Let’s try. Anthony Davis is ridiculous. Anthony Davis is incredible. Anthony Davis is a once in a lifetime talent. Anthony Davis carried a team with three inefficient overrated players (Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday) to the 8th seed in a loaded Western Conference. And his team beat out a team with the possessed Russell Westbrook to get that spot. It’s quite impressive. Davis just put up a PER that’s only been surpassed by Wilt, Jordan and LeBron. Unfortunately, because of his supporting cast he may just be in a similar situation as David Robinson in the early-90s.

The Warriors are too deep and too good at everything. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson just destroyed the league from the guard positions. Curry, the likely MVP of the league, was the only player this season to boast a WS/48 that was higher than Davis’ this year. The Warriors are also the best defensive team in the league, thanks to Andrew Bogut (fun fact: I knew right there that Bogut for Monta Ellis a few seasons ago was an absolutely steal for the Warriors) and Draymond Green. The Warriors are so good they willing bench David Lee, someone who could still be a 17-9 guy in the league. Then there is this gem from Bill Simmons: The Warriors are one of seven teams to have a .800 winning percentage and a points differential of plus-10. The other six? ’71 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92 Bulls, ’96 Bulls, ’97 Bulls and ’08 Celtics. Two points to note from that. One: That’s three Michael Jordan teams, which is ridiculous. And two: all six of those teams won the title. All of them. It’s going to be hard to not pick the Warriors here.

Davis is worth a win with some crazy 35-17-6-3-3 game or something. But Golden State just isn’t losing here.

Warriors in 5

#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

A very interesting match-up that is a lot closer than it seems.

There are some interesting parallels here. Both the Rockets and Mavericks made controversial mid-season moves, and neither really worked out. Rajon Rondo has feuded with Rick Carlisle and hasn’t fit in with Monta Ellis in the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Smith brought his normal inefficient offense to Houston and didn’t provide the help the injured Dwight Howard and James Harden needed. Both teams have a defensive monster at center…Howard for Houston and Tyson Chandler for Dallas, although one of those isn’t as good as he once was. Both Carlisle and Kevin McHale, the two head coaches, were Celtics. Both teams are from Texas. Ok I’m nitpicking now.

Here’s the thing. The James Harden-led Rockets have yet to win a playoff series. The main pieces of the Mavericks: Carlisle as a coach, Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler have all won the title before, and three of those did it in Dallas. Dallas proved to be a tough out (the only one) last year against San Antonio because they have guys who knows that it takes to get the job done in the playoffs.

When you really look at it, how do the Rockets win this series? They are virtually a one man offensive team. The Mavericks are built to stop those types of teams with Chandler in the middle. Dallas played Houston very tough this season as well: Houston won on the road by 7 and at home by 5 and 3. Dallas won one game in Dallas by 11. If Nowitzki gets into his prime form, and Ellis doesn’t shoot them out of games, I don’t know if Houston can contain Dallas.

The problem is Nowitzki regress enough this season to cause concern about taking over a playoff series. I don’t believe in Monta Ellis, and I still don’t see the Rondo fit. Chandler will cause all kinds of problems for Harden, but I don’t think Dallas will be able to pull it out. If this was last year’s Nowitzki, I’d pick them.

Rockets in 7.

#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. #6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Poor Chris Paul. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this script before. Gregg Popovich just knows how to create defensive schemes that limit Paul. In 2008 the Spurs beat Paul’s great Hornets team in a New Orleans. In 2012 the Spurs swept Paul’s Clippers. This is one of those I need to see it happen situations before I can take the Clippers.

The other part of this equation: the Spurs are basketball’s best team this last one-eighth of the season. The ageless Tim Duncan has been on top of his game. Kawhi Leonard is an elite defender…basically the new age Bruce Bowen only with a crazy offensive game to go with it…and perhaps a top 20 player in the league right now. Tony Parker is peaking. Everything is going right for the Spurs.

Maybe this is poor analysis, but I need to see it from the Clippers before I pick them against San Antonio. Great Chris Paul and Blake Griffin seasons be damned.

Spurs in 6

#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

Portland just hasn’t been the same since LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his hand and Wes Mathews was out for the season. Portland is merely 19-19 in their last 38 games and only got the 4th seed due to the NBA’s weird seeding rules for division champs.

It doesn’t help Portland that the Grizzlies are one of the toughest defense teams out there. Marc Gasol is a former defensive player of the year, Tony Allen is always a threat to win the award and Mike Conley is as tough as he comes. There’s the general overall toughness of Zach Randolph too.

Portland is just trending downward. Memphis is just a tough team to beat and Portland’s injuries just makes this way too tough. Damian Lillard needs to have the series of his life for Portland to have chance here. Memphis has home court too, although that won’t even come into play here.

Grizzles in 4.

Eastern Conference

#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22) vs. #8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)

The Nets are the sneaky hot team that might get some “upset special” calls. I thought that a bit too, but then that meant I was relying on Deron Williams (washed up at 30 apparently, overrated to begin with), Joe Johnson (anyone notice the Hawks have had a great run since Johnson left them?) and Brook Lopez (always a threat to go back to a good offensive player who somehow can’t rebound despite being 7 foot). The Nets are the 2004 New York Knicks. Congrats.

I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, and I think they may be one of the worst 60 win teams ever, but I can get into that when they are playing the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Until then, let’s just go with the obvious and take the Hawks here.

Hawks in 4.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42)

Another easy call here. The Celtics have been super hot and 29-12 in the last half of the season. Isaiah Thomas has been a key asset and the Celtics are just gelling. Brad Stevens has proven to be a great coach.

The Cavs started 19-20. They are 34-10 since. LeBron is in near peak form, which really might be better than anyone else in the league still. Kyrie Irving has improved leaps and bounds. Kevin Love, while not at the level he once was, actually had a good season that no one realizes. Mozgov, Shumpert and JR have been great pieces.

I’ll give Boston one because Thomas might have a nice 30 pointer in there. But…yeah, not yet Boston. Not yet.

Cavs in 5

#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32) vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)

Jason Kidd deserves something for bringing the Bucks to the playoffs. But I mean, this should be as obvious as the other two series we’ve covered so far.

Sure the Bucks will play it tough. But they just don’t have the talent. Michael-Carter Williams is a fun…but probably bad player. Is The Greak Freak ready to have the series of his life? Even so, that may not be enough.

I expect the Bulls to really be tough this year. Pau Gasol provides that Championship experience. Mirotic is a great bench piece. Jimmy Butler is the best player on this team and is probably the front runner for Most Improved Player of the Year. The Bulls don’t need the old Derrick Rose to beat these Bucks.

Bulls in 5

#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36)

Paul Pierce gets to face the Raptors again in round 1!

No one outside of Toronto or Washington cares about this series. The Raptors are 12-16 in their last 28. The Wizards are 13-15 in their last 28. Not inspiring here. John Wall went from fun young player to overrated (as did Bradley Beal, really). Kyle Lowry went from underrated to irrelevant. For DeMar DeRozan, see Beal. The only player I really trust on either of these teams is Paul Pierce, which is pretty telling (I actually like Jonas as well for Toronto, so I’m lying here).

I’ll pick the Wizards though, because they have some playoff experience under their belt…they almost made the Conference Finals last year afterall…and Paul Pierce is the type of veteran that can help here. The Wizards are the best of the rest of the East (outside of the top 3), but that doesn’t mean they are any good. To be honest, it doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with.

But I need a reason to believe in Toronto and I don’t have one. At least I have one with Washington.

Wizards in 6