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Basketball

2017-2018 NBA Season Predictions

October 17, 2017 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

The Path to Warriors-Cavs IV? Sure it looks likely, but we’ll see. Sure was a crazy off-season.

Atlantic Division

Celtics: 53-29 (2)

Raptors: 46-36 (5)

Sixers: 30-52

Knicks: 26-56

Nets: 25-57

Boston I think is pretty obvious for the top of the Atlantic (it was less obvious last year when I called it). Sure it may take time to integrate Hayward and Kyrie, and the defense overall has some holes losing Avery Bradley. But come on, it’s the East. Toronto is trying this new three pointers everywhere thing, which would be fine if they actually had good three point shooters. There’s enough talent there though to be in the thick of things again. I would love to give the Sixers a huge 2010 Thunder leap, but I’m sorry there is nothing that makes me think Joel Embiid can play anything resembling a full NBA schedule. Which is a shame, because he could be a difference maker. Knicks are thankfully past the Carmelo era and should be bad, but again wins are just going to appear in the East. A potential defensive disaster with Hardaway Jr. and Kanter too. The Nets should show some signs of life, and I’m sure if you ignore FG% D’Angelo Russell will be a fun fantasy guy, but we have a long way to go here.

Central Division

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)

Bucks: 49-33 (4)

Pistons: 38-44 (8)

Pacers: 32-50

Bulls: 21-61

Maybe the Cavs actually fall behind the Bucks in the standings but once it becomes playoff time, it won’t matter. Giannis might just be the future, and the Bucks have a cool (and long) team otherwise. They might be the 18-19 team to be honest. Detroit is kind of a mess and unless Andre Drummond wants to become the star I thought he would be a few years ago I don’t see them really getting past this point (Reggie Jackson at one time was probably the most overrated player in the league). Like Milwaukee, Indiana has a future star on their hands in Turner, but once again we’re not there yet. Giving the Bulls 21 wins might be high. I’m calling it now though, Lauri Markkanen will at least be a solid player in this league and not a complete disaster.

Southeast Division

Wizards: 51-31 (3)

Hornets: 43-39 (6)

Heat: 42-40 (7)

Magic: 28-54

Hawks: 23-59

Washington definitely has an outside shot at the Finals. They almost beat Boston, and if the Cavs aren’t ready with IT2 it could happen. The Wall+Beal combo is good, not great, but good in the Eastern Conference gets you far. The Hornets’ Steve Clifford is a very good coach and while Dwight will probably be the same cohesion destroyer he’s been since he left Orlando, his rim protection should help a lot. Miami was the hottest team in basketball somehow, finishing at 30-11. There’s some flukiness to that though, especially when you are relying on Dion Waiters as part of that equations. The Hawks join the Knicks, Nets and Bulls in the “jeeze these teams are bad” club for the East.

Northwest Division

Thunder: 54-28 (4)

Timberwolves: 50-32 (5)

Nuggets: 45-37 (6)

Trail Blazers: 43-39 (7)

Jazz: 37-45

A real tough division here. I don’t even think OKC is guaranteed the top of the division. Westbrook-Carmelo-George is of course a sexy trio in name value, but I’m not sure how they are all supposed to work together on offense. Carmelo will probably be fine to be honest, finally in a role that makes sense (third best player on his team, potentially hot offensive option that can win games). If his ego is fine with that, then that works perfectly. Can George be a good off the ball weapon? We all know Westbrook will be handling at all times. The rest of the team is a dumpster fire though. Minnesota could be a crazy surprise if Jimmy Butler is the superstar he was turning into in Chicago. Butler, KAT, Wiggins, so much potential for a great season here. I could see them beating OKC in a playoff series too. Denver has some cool additions this season too, specifically Paul Millsap. Him and Jokic are an exciting front court that should have Denver’s offense at an elite level all season. Portland is kinda stuck where they are, with one really good guard, one good guard and a lot of pieces. I don’t know how they get better. Utah should be good defensively with Gobert, but I’m not sure where the offense is supposed to come from.

Pacific Division

Warriors: 69-13 (1)

Clippers: 40-42

Lakers: 38-44

Suns: 28-54

Kings: 27-55

Obviously Golden State. There’s a lot of random hype about the Clippers, and I love the Danilo Gallinari addition, but come on now, you don’t drop Chris Paul and expect to be close to the level you were at before. Lakers have a lot of exciting young pieces and I think will surprise. Ball is probably going to be a fun offensive option in the passing game and I think Brandon Ingram will look a lot better. Brook Lopez, while flawed, is still a notable addition too. The Suns have Devin Booker so there’s that. The Kings have who I think can win Rookie of the Year in Fox…although who knows who’s playing how much in Sacramento. Apparently Vince Carter started some pre-season games. Vince Carter!

Southwest Division

Rockets: 62-20 (2)

Spurs: 59-23 (3)

Pelicans: 42-40 (8)

Mavericks: 39-43

Grizzlies: 36-46

There’s no way you can sell me on a Mike D’Antoni team led by Chris Paul being bad. For all the talk that James Harden can’t play off the ball he was fine in Oklahoma City. Too bad they’ll probably lose to the Spurs in Round 2. Speaking of the Spurs, sure I have questions about LaMarcus Aldridge, but Leonard (my MVP last year) is there and he’s a destructive force at both ends of the floor. It’s not just that I don’t completely believe in the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins pairing (because of Cousins), but what they surround them with isn’t good. Jrue Holliday gets all the credit in the world for a fluke All-Star game appearance five years ago in a bad East. He’s not good. Dallas has nice young pieces (Smith and Noel) and the aging Dirk, but that’s not nearly enough. Expect Mike Conley and Marc Gasol to be on the trade block, because Memphis is a shell of its former self and I don’t see their old school style succeeding…although I said that last year.

Warriors over Cavs in 5 again!

Basketball

It’s Not the Players To Blame…

July 28, 2017 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

Criticizing Kevin Durant for leaving the Thunder to play for the 73-9 Warriors isn’t fair.

Oh yeah, it was an unpopular choice for sure. The idea that Durant, at the time the third best player in basketball, would join a 73 win team that had the second best player in the basketball and an entire array of basketball talent was disappointing (to say the least) from a competitive standpoint. When you play basketball in the playground, you never want to stack the team on one side. What fun is that? Legends like Magic, Larry and Michael talked about how they never would have joined one another, they wanted to beat one another. Quite frankly, it seemed like Durant, and LeBron before him (and others) took the coward’s way out. But they didn’t. They did the right thing. And it isn’t their fault that it had to happen that way. I’ll wait until the end of the article about whose fault it is. But first, let’s go through the reasons of why you can’t blame them for making the moves they made.

Fair or not, everything’s measured through the Championship.

Maybe if Ewing somehow played with MJ instead of against him we’d remember him in a more positive, different light.

As a New York Knicks fan, I’ve toyed with the idea that Patrick Ewing was overrated and the Knicks played better without him (the Ewing theory). But that’s not fair. He’s properly rated (mostly outside of New York) and the Knicks franchise hasn’t been the same since he left. But his legacy is of course, that he wasn’t good enough to be the best player for a title team. His failures are measured more than his successes. How about Kevin Garnett? What would we think of his career if he hadn’t left Minnesota and never won that title in Boston? Charles Barkley and Karl Malone are known as two of Michael Jordan’s victims. Dirk Nowitzki played out of his freakin mind to shed the label of a playoff choker. Heck, fans killed Kobe for not winning his own ring until 2009, even though he had three with Shaq. Some guys move to get their rings. Some guys don’t. Would we be criticizing Steve Nash’s MVPs if he had won the title during one of them?

There’s no reason players shouldn’t go out and have the best career they possibly could.

You think Bosh preferred this or carrying subpar Raptor teams to 40 wins every year?

So how much does legacy mean to these players? For some of them it matters greatly. In fact, I’d argue the biggest difference between players then and players now is that players then cared about their legacy (especially MJ) and now, not so much. They care about their brands now. And you know what, I totally agree. Right now there are people who think Kevin Durant is the best player in basketball. And that’s GREAT for the Kevin Durant brand. If he could guarantee that by going to Golden State, good for him! LeBron thought playing for the Miami Heat was best for him and his brand. We all trashed him for doing it, but he came out of Miami as someone who’s compared to Michael Jordan without someone blinking an eye. He came out of it as the undisputed best player in the world. Does that happen in Cleveland? You think LeBron came back to Cleveland just for the loyalty? No, he came back because it was his best shot at a title. And he was right. These players are grown adults and, like any one of us, should be doing what’s best for themselves. What’s best for their families. What’s best for their money and brand. You think Chris Bosh really cares that people called him soft when joining Miami after those four years changed his career? Why do these adults owe the fans? Because the fans pay money to see them play and buy their gear?

Past players didn’t have to go through what players do today.

Of course Bird wouldn’t have to leave McHale and Parish to win…

Let’s put it this way, if there were 30 teams in basketball in the 80s, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird would have been carrying shit franchises just like LeBron had to. Magic, Bird and MJ can all talk about being loyal and wanting to beat one another, but they also either had stacked teams (McHale, Parish, DJ for Bird, Worthy, Abdul-Jabbar for Magic…and both teams had good role players) or in MJ’s case, was delivered elite-great talent. One of the reason fans are loyal to Kobe is because he allegedly had that old school mentality of being loyal. Of course, that was fiction, Kobe demanded a trade in 2008, rejected going to Chicago for Luol Deng and Ben Gordon cause he thought the Bulls were demolishing their team, and only stayed as the Lakers delivered Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum finally came around. I don’t see Kobe carrying around 45 win teams throughout the late 2000s, let’s just say that (I think there’s some truth for that with MJ too). So, the lesson from the Kobe situation is…

It’s the owners’ fault, not the players.

Let’s look at the major players that switched to “better” teams. Even the ones that weren’t criticized much for it.

LeBron James

The Decision was embarrassing sure. But what exactly did Cleveland do to keep LeBron around? He carried an absolutely dreadful 2007 Cavs team to the Finals. Let’s actually look at that team for a second. 2^nd scorer? Larry Hughes. Hughes the very next year was one of the joke contract New York Knicks. After that we have Drew Gooden, knucklehead that never reached his potential. You had a past his prime Ilgauskas. Role playing Anderson Varejao. Eric Snow was the starting point guard and averaged a whopping 4 and 4 in 23 MPG that season on 42% shooting. Without LeBron this team is at best 25-57. And this was a FINALS team. Let’s see what moves Cleveland made to bring in that Scottie Pippen or Pau Gasol.

For the next season, they added a washed up Ben Wallace and decent shooter Wally Szczerbiak. Both were complete non-factors.

For 08-09, the Cavs make a big splash by adding scorer Mo Williams! Mo has the best year of his career and makes an All-Star Team. Of course, Williams isn’t a difference maker at all, never made an All-NBA team in his life, never sniffed an All-Star Game before or after this year and shot under 35% in four of the six games against Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals. But hey, it’s something!

The next year, the Cavs add a 36 year old Shaquille O’Neal, who missed half the season and was a complete non-factor. They also add Antawn Jamison. Jamison, always a one way player at this point would seem to be the difference maker. Well, my favorite Jamison Cavs memory is making 2010 Kevin Garnett look like 2008 Kevin Garnett in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals (a big difference, KG was a 14/7 guy in 2010 after surgery in 2009. KG never scored less than 18 in this series, with a huge 22-12 on 11/19 in the clincher. And Jamison was his primary defender). Jamison was also poor in the series as well.

A 33 year old scorer with no defense and a point guard who had one good (not great, but good) year was the best they could do. And we blame LeBron for leaving?

Chris Paul

Can’t forget about CP3, who demanded a trade to LA and only didn’t get hell for it because of the Laker veto situation that made David Stern to be the bigger evil. Paul had a good team around him as the Hornets were excellent in 07-08. David West was a solid big man. Peja Stojakovic was at the end of his prime, but still a sharpshooter. Tyson Chandler just came around as a defensive and rebounding force (and would win the title with Dallas in that role, as well as help New York become relevant again). Bonzi Wells and Morris Peterson were effective pieces too. This Hornets team was a game away from the Western Conference Finals.

The next year Chandler only plays half the season and Peja slips. Hornets don’t improve personnel wise in any way. Peterson becomes a 12 MPG guy, and Wells is gone. Hornets fall into a losing in Round 1 team.

Chris Paul gets hurt, but the team remains relatively unchanged other than trading Chandler for Emeka Okafor, who was a one way guy (on defense) his whole career. Chandler for Okafor makes sense when you look at the statline. Of course, Chandler was (and is) a much better player than Okafor. Two emerging young players come to light though, Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison.

Collison is traded for Trevor Ariza and midway Thornton is traded for Carl Landry. Hornets are stuck as a First Round team again, although with an injured West Paul takes the Lakers to six games anyway (one of the best forgotten one man shows in recent NBA history).

Switching out a bunch of role players, trading Chandler for Okafor. Way to trap Chris Paul on a one and done team. And you wonder why he wanted to play for the Lakers…and didn’t mind the Clippers with Blake Griffin.

Dwight Howard

Dwight had led the 2009 Magic to a surprising NBA Finals berth. Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson were all interesting options around him, especially since Dwight wasn’t one to take a lot of shots. Still, this is what Orlando built for Dwight.

Orlando admittedly takes a good shot with Vince Carter. Unfortunately, it’s a past his prime Vince Carter. Magic lose in the ECF.

Carter continues to be a non-factor, Turkoglu is losing his edge, Lewis only played 25 games (and was probably off PEDs). Jason Richardson was a decent addition I guess. To get Dwight elite help the Magic laughably added Gilbert Arenas, who was beyond done at this point.

Penny and T-Mac should be embarrassed their jersey number was used here.

Ryan Anderson emerges as a viable option while Nelson, Turkoglu and Richardson all regress. Arenas, Carter and Lewis are all gone.

Past his prime Vince Carter, a done Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson. Just the elite star Dwight was looking for. (Although, to be fair, Dwight is a headcase anyway).

Kevin Durant

Ahha, how can I spin Kevin Durant into this conversation? He just left the guy who won MVP! Well let me ask you something. If your owner, if your boss told you he was going to put money ahead of building a better team or organization. How would you feel? You’d potentially want to leave, right? Well, I present to you the following:

James Harden: October 27, 2012: Traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a 2013 1st round draft pick (Steven Adams was later selected), a 2013 2nd round draft pick (Alex Abrines was later selected) and a 2014 1st round draft pick (Mitch McGary was later selected).

Why was that done? Because OKC didn’t want to go over the luxury tax to pay Harden. You know, the guy who was top three in the MVP race this year. He immediately made the Rockets a Western Conference force. And it was thought Harden was good at that point too. The Thunder put money over winning the title, there’s no way around that. And if Oklahoma City wasn’t serious about winning the title…

….how can I blame Kevin Durant for going to a team that was?

Basketball

2016-2017 NBA Predictions!

October 25, 2016 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

It’s finally time for some NBA basketball! Last season was historic for plenty of reasons as Golden State broke the 96 Bulls’ record for wins with 73…but fell to LeBron and the Cavs in the NBA Finals. Of course, for the city of Cleveland that was historic of itself. Other crazy stuff happened too…like Kevin Durant joining those Warriors and spurning the Oklahoma City Thunder (can we just make the late 90s Magic/2010s Thunder comparison documentary now). Dwyane Wade also switched teams to Chicago. The Knicks also built an alleged superteam, even though all of those guys peaked from 2010 through 2013. We also had one stacked retirement class in Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amar’e Stoudemire and Elton Brand. Sadly, Chris Bosh may be added to that if he isn’t cleared to compete. Sorry for the spoilers, but all of this is just going to lead to Warriors-Cavs III anyway. Yeah the NBA is predictable, but when that predictability gets toppled (like the Cavs beating the Warriors) those moments are incredible.

Atlantic Division

Celtics: 51-31 (2)
Raptors: 42-40 (7)
Knicks: 41-41 (8)
76ers: 18-64
Nets: 13-69

Boston is correctly the off-season darling as they are a well coached team (President Stevens!), added Al Horford and already have a solid team overall. There are a lot of Cavs hangover-Celtics in the Finals predictions, but Boston will probably lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to Cleveland. Even though Toronto was a good team last year (and I didn’t even believe in them), the team will go as far as Kyle Lowry takes them and I don’t really know what to make of DeMar Derozan. I sense he’s that good stats guy who’s not really that great. The Knicks might have been a title contender in 2011, but Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah just isn’t going to make for a high profile offense at this point. They’ll have their nights for sure. But Noah has been one of the worst offensive centers in his last full season (and he was good at one time), and all he’s going to do it logjam the middle for Melo and Rose (and Brandon Jennings), none of whom are great outside shooters although Melo gets hot once in a while. The 76ers still have a long way to go and I sadly believe Embiid, great as he’s looked, has Greg Oden injury potential written all over him. The Nets are the laughing stock everyone predicted when they traded their future for old Paul Pierce and old Kevin Garnett.

Central Division

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)
Pacers: 49-33 (3)
Pistons: 45-37 (5)
Bulls: 40-42
Bucks: 29-53

Once again, there are a lot of “Cavalier hangover” articles out there, but they’ll get over it before the playoffs anyway. I mean this is a team that overcame a mid-season coaching change and beat the greatest regular season team ever. Yeah, maybe LeBron is slightly past his prime, but so was Jordan in the 2^nd three-peat and that worked out fine. They are going to the Finals again. Paul George was great in his return season and I see no reason he won’t be better next year, and in the East that’s enough. They almost beat the Raptors in Round 1 afterall. Detroit is a team that I need to see get it done before I can put them higher, but Andre Drummond has best center in the league potential. He just needs to hit a free throw. Putting the Knicks over the Bulls might have been homerism from me…but Chicago has a lot of the same issues the Knicks have in regards to spacing, and it may actually be worse. They’ll miss Pau Gasol too. I know the Bucks have Giannis, but he seems more highlight reel worthy than actually leading to wins.

Southeast Division

Wizards: 45-37 (4)
Hawks: 43-39 (6)
Hornets: 33-49
Magic: 32-50
Heat: 31-51

What a mess of a division. I think it’s time for John Wall to put up or shut up. He has the talent to be an elite guy, but whether he will be is another question. The Hawks mainly dropped Horford for Dwight Howard. I think there’s some homerun upside here…but it’s probably leading to a small regression. Hornets are one of the teams I don’t believe in this year. Kemba Walker had a good year and all, but just look at that roster. I think it falls apart. Serge Ibaka isn’t going to lead to wins for a Magic team with no identity. The Heat are a mess. Goran Dragic gets another chance I guess to make something happen and return to All-NBA 3^rd Team form, but Hassan Whiteside is either really good or deceptively bad, Chris Bosh is gone and I think Miami has to start from scratch.

Northwest Division

Thunder: 50-32 (4)
Utah Jazz: 49-33 (5)
Timberwolves: 48-34 (6)
Trail Blazers: 42-40
Nuggets: 28-54

The Thunder will still be there because Russell Westbrook is a Top 5 guy. Victor Oladipo may find a new lease on life playing with him too. And you know Westbrook is determined to show he can do it without Durant. Utah’s put all the pieces together over the last five years and it should finally show something. Minnesota has Tom Thibodeau as coach and an exciting young core led by KAT. They remind me of the 09-10 Thunder. Portland looked good thanks to a big year from Lillard and big improvement from CJ McCollum, but all the pieces fell in place perfectly last year for them just to end up at 44-38 (bad Anthony Davis year, no Wolves, Rockets falling apart). The Nuggets are just there and that’s the best way to describe them at the moment.

Pacific Division

Warriors: 64-18 (1)
Clippers: 52-30 (3)
Kings: 40-42
Lakers: 36-46
Suns: 30-52

I was absolutely wrong about how this division would shake out last year. This year it’s clear the Warriors will be at the top adding Kevin Durant, and they’ll settle for a nice 60+ win season while probably resting key guys down the stretch. That’s because the Clippers have peaked (and really peaked in the 14-15 season). While Blake Griffin should be amazing now and Chris Paul is still the best pure point guard, the chemistry isn’t there anymore and all the Blake trade rumors from last year has to take its toll. I think it may be time to start over really. The Kings will improve because Cousins is hitting his prime, although the roster is still a mess. Lakers should automatically improve without having Kobe on the roster and adding Ingram. I know I picked D’Angelo Russell as ROTY last year, but I think the toxic Laker make-up cost him that chance. Not much to be happy about post Goran Dragic with the Suns to be honest.

Southwest Division

Rockets: 53-29 (2)
Spurs: 48-34 (7)
Pelicans: 45-37 (8)
Mavericks: 41-41
Grizzlies: 34-48

The Rockets ended up being an embarrassing division winning prediction last year, but I love the idea of a Mike D’Antoni coached James Harden point guard team. If Harden can be efficient, he may swipe MVP. Chemistry should only be better too. The LaMarcus Aldrige grumblings have already begun. Gregg Popovich is an amazing coach and the Spurs still seem stacked, but Gasol is on his last legs, Aldridge is unhappy and I want to see Kawhi Leonard be the man. I think that post Duncan era regression begins slowly. Anthony Davis got a shooter in Buddy Hield, but either a star needs to be put with him or we need to prepare for Davis to leave New Orleans in a few years. It’s too late for the Mavericks. And we are way past the correct era for the Grizzlies with their $153 Million man to succeed.

Warriors over Cavs in 7 for the title. I think LeBron is top 3 all time…but the Warriors just added Kevin Durant for free. Imagine if Jordan had to run into the 98 Jazz but they added Grant Hill or something? This is actually worse!

Basketball

2016 NBA Finals Prediction

June 2, 2016 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

So long Toronto and Oklahoma City. In Toronto’s case they’ve proved me wrong five different times in these playoffs. Sure they lost in six, but they put up a great fight and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan definitely earned my respect. Hopefully DeRozan doesn’t leave and Toronto sticks around as a regular playoff team each year.

I don’t know if Oklahoma City fans should consider this season a win or not. They weren’t supposed to get past San Antonio and going up 3-1 on the record breaking Warriors seemed unfathomable. I’m not completely surprised that Golden State came back although I did think Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were playing way too well for it to happen. Unfortunately, Durant will have his clutchness questioned (not unlike LeBron five years ago) and really Westbrook should too. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but eventually top stars need to get the job done. And when you’re up 3-1 that means not losing three straight. Durant is where LeBron five or six years ago and I wouldn’t count him out. We definitely got some great basketball out if it…leading to…

NBA Finals

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)

In the end we have the two #1 seeds. It may have felt like a complicated way to get here but in truth the Eastern Conference side has was always going to be the Cavs despite Toronto’s fight. Golden State, despite the 73-9 record, was always a little less certain as the Spurs loomed. Surprisingly Oklahoma City took Golden State to the limit. That plus Stephen Curry’s playoff injury plus Draymond Green suddenly becoming one of the league’s top villains has made the Warriors look vulnerable. Cleveland meanwhile has marched through the East with a 12-2 record with the highest points differential in the playoffs since the 2001 Lakers.

Let’s make the case for Cavs. First off the Cavs have LeBron James. Only the biggest haters of LeBron at this point can ignore the fact that he’s one of the best ten players of all time, one of the top two players in the league right now (and still arguably #1). Most fans have taken LeBron for granted. The fact of the matter is LeBron almost won the NBA title last year with Matthew Dellavedova as his 2^nd best guy. LeBron went for 36-13-9 on AVERAGE (admittedly with a bad shooting %) and wore down the Warriors basically by himself. In fact, LeBron was my pick for Finals MVP even though Cleveland lost. And this year? This year LeBron has weapons. Like Kyrie Irving. Like Kevin Love. If good J.R. Smith shows up then include him too. If they reach their potential this is one scary team. They showed that against the Hawks in these playoffs. LeBron James can turn this series around and this time he doesn’t need to take 28 shots each game to do it.

Let’s talk about Kevin Love. Love seems to be the most inconsistent player on Cleveland. Some nights he’s nailing threes and getting double digit rebounds. Other nights he’s nowhere to be seen and a ghost on defense. His defense probably won’t magically improve, so he’ll have to have consistent big offensive nights in this series. It should be noted that in the two games against the Warriors this year Love has shot 6 for 21. He’ll have to do better than that.

Cleveland will also have to win the offensive rebounding game by a significant margin to win. This is what you were paid to do Tristan Thompson. Kevin Love also grabbed 18 boards against Golden State on Xmas…but it should be noted they still lost that game. Golden State has already beaten three of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA in these playoffs. It doesn’t mean Cleveland can’t win this way though.

All three of these reasons (not just one or two) will have to happen in order for Cleveland to win. Even then I’m not quite sure it will be enough.

For one Stephen Curry seems 100% over his injury and doing Stephen Curry things. He’s absolutely unstoppable in this situation and unlike last year I don’t think someone like Dellavedova is going to rattle him. And even so, Klay Thompson is clearly in peak form right now too. If there’s one thing we learned from Cleveland’s series against Toronto it’s that the perimeter defense is suspect. Lowry and DeRozan ran wild when away from Cleveland. And Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are much better than Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. I don’t have much faith in Cleveland’s defense away from Cleveland. And in Cleveland I don’t expect for Curry to get shut down.

I also think Golden State is a strong enough team defensively to at least hold down the Cavs. Of course LeBron will get his, but will Kevin Love? I get that Kyrie Irving was just getting back into rhythm when the regular season games against the Warriors took place but he looked bad in both. Then again he was good against them in Game 1 before he went down. The Cavs may get big contributions from Channing Frye and J.R. Smith and they will need them, but I don’t know if that’s enough to win a seven game series. Defensively Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will make Cleveland work for their points. Rebounding wise Green can also beat Cleveland as well (as he did on Christmas). Bismack Biyombo’s rebounding performance in the Eastern Conference Finals really puts a damper on the whole “Cleveland will beat Golden State by outrebounding them” strategy.

All of the intangible factors to go Golden State too. They’ve been here before. They’ve been tested and they’ve won. They’re a 73-9 juggernaut. They have the coaching advantage (although Ty Lue is quite a wildcard). They even have Anderson Varejao, who may not be a factor on the court but you can never like it when someone who’s been on one side for so long is suddenly you enemy (see Horace Grant vs. the Bulls in ‘95 or Robert Horry vs the Lakers in ’04…a Phil Jackson story there).

On Cleveland’s side Kyrie Irving’s played in one Finals game total (although in truth I think he’ll be fine). Kevin Love hasn’t yet and really hasn’t shown me he’s ready for that level of intensity. We don’t really know what difference Ty Lue made other than some stories. If anything, Cleveland had a worse regular season record after David Blatt was fired despite getting Irving back.

The Golden State Warriors are just too good to lose four out of seven. Oklahoma City was close, and I sense that was just the kick in the ass they needed too.

Warriors in 6.

Basketball

NBA Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals!

May 16, 2016 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com 2 Comments

So long Portland, San Antonio, Atlanta and Miami. Gotta hand it to Portland, Damian Lillard is a star and definitely the leader Portland needs. If they get some more talent surrounding them watch out. The Spurs going down is a shocker, but kudos to Billy Donovan for outcoaching Gregg Popovich. LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard are great players, but Aldridge doesn’t seem to have the leadership qualities of a top guy and Leonard may be more of a Scottie Pippen type. I guess we’ll see. I don’t think anyone had Atlanta winning a game against Cleveland, although Cleveland suddenly looking like the Warriors in terms of shooting the basketball is terrifying. I was basically one quarter away from calling Miami-Toronto correctly, but Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan proved that they can perform in the playoffs. 2-2, 7-5 total.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)

I would love as a fan to see Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook upset Golden State and make it back to the Finals. I was just watching the 30 for 30 Magic Moment documentary on the mid 90’s Magic and its crazy how many parallels are here with OKC. They’ve tasted Finals glory. They had one clear star and one up and coming star, only that up and coming star became so good it’s arguable that he’s on the same level as the clear star. Injuries to the top star only furthered that opinion. They are in a smaller market and relatively new (OKC moved from Seattle, Orlando was new). And now that top star is debating leaving (Durant might, Shaq did). The year before that decision, they face a 70+ win juggernaut in the Conference Finals. I don’t want to see this OKC team break up and I feel like only a shot in the Finals might prevent that. This OKC team is fun and great for basketball, just like the mid 90s Magic were.

But the Warriors are running on all cylinders. Somehow the injury to Curry feels like a long time ago. I guess 17 point overtimes from one player will do that. Each time in the regular season Oklahoma City was just plays away from beating Golden State but could never do it. Durant can go for 40 and Westbrook with the 20-10-10, and still Curry might drop 45 and the Warriors will still win. I think there will be a lot of close games and I don’t want to count out OKC since they absolutely shocked me with their victory over the Spurs. But GS has answers to the match-up problems OKC caused in the previous series. Draymond Green won’t allow the Kanter-Adams lineup to flourish. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry can score with Durant and Westbrook. Iguodala can hound Durant. There’s too much to ignore. Get exicted for five games with scores like 118-110 though. Even if the Warriors win four of them.

Warriors in 5

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #2 Toronto Raptors (56-26)

I’ve counted Toronto out three times so far as I had them missing the playoffs, losing to Indiana then losing to Miami. I’m obviously continuing the trend here but this time it has less to do with Toronto. The Cavaliers are playing the type of basketball I expected from them when they got together last year. As for Toronto, bravo, Lowry and DeRozan are playing great and they should be proud of a great season. No Jonas and a semi-injured DeMarre Carrol is just way too much for Toronto to overcome on their side.

Cavs in 4.

Basketball

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions!

April 16, 2016 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

Note: I wrote in my First Round Predictions on Twitter before any of the games began. This will become especially important when you get to Raptors-Pacers.

What a crazy NBA season. We’ve got one historic team (Golden State), one team that would be historic if it weren’t for Golden State (San Antonio), LeBron leading a dysfunctional Cavs team to 57 wins and a #1 seed, Kobe’s crazy last game and two teams with bonafide stars that everyone’s counting out (and arguably rightfully so) because of the Warriors and Spurs (Thunder and Clippers). Can you imagine counting out a team with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and being completely justified in doing so? Madness right? At least it should make predicting the playoffs easier.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #8 Houston Rockets (41-41)

Houston is the NBA’s second biggest disappointment, but the only one that’s indefensible. While their main acquisition didn’t work out in Ty Lawson, the Rockets should have still been in contention for a position somewhere in the 3^rd-5^th seed range. And it’s embarrassing why they aren’t there. Dwight Howard just isn’t going to grow up I guess and the window of him being an elite difference maker are now long gone. He could still be a defensive force though. James Harden seemed one of the best stories in the league when he left Oklahoma City and became a star in Houston, but that good will is now gone as he’s acting like a superstar who’s yet to win anything. He’s an awful defensive player and a coach killer. What a shame all around.

Yeah, Golden State’s going to destroy them. I think one of the games will be close and the other three are double digit wins from the Warriors. Like Houston’s going to slow down Steph Curry.

Warriors in 4

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)

The league has passed Memphis by. And no Marc Gasol is just a disaster for the Grizzlies. The Spurs have been the class of the NBA as long as they weren’t facing Golden State.

Isn’t it strange that the Western Conference is the least interesting one for once?

Spurs in 4

#3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (42-40)

This may be a closer series than one would expect. While Oklahoma swept the season series 4-0, the Mavericks have been playing well, winning 7 of their last 9, to get into the playoffs. Normally I wouldn’t put much stock into that, I like how they’ve been able to win games without big games from Dirk Nowitzki. They’ve also won with a collection of some of the weakest rim protectors in recent memory (David Lee? Zaza? Nowitzki?). They also have one of the league’s best coaches in Rick Carlisle. And while he hasn’t been playing great or anything, if Dirk Nowitzki gets hot I can’t count Dallas out of anything. Nowitzki’s one of the best 15 players of all time and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Of course, Oklahoma has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, which should render most arguments moot. Dallas’s best bet is to try to win shootouts against OKC because Durant and Westbrook are getting their points. It would help if Dallas could at least slow down Enes Kanter, as he’s had a pretty great season that’s flown under the radar.

To make the case for Dallas, just don’t forget what happened in the 2014 First Round when Dallas took San Antonio to 7 games. Sure it’s a weaker Dallas team, but I don’t like counting out elite legends and elite coaches.

Thunder in 6.

#4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-29) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

Portland’s a fun story. Damian Lillard has become a real house of fire (and somehow wasn’t selected for the All-Star game) while C.J. McCollum has locked up the Most Improved Player Award with a surprising 20 PPG season. Fun team for sure.

Clippers are stacked. Yeah, there are some glaring chemistry and teammate issues with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, but this team is way too talented to lose to Portland here. I think Lillard steals a game or two though.

Clippers in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #8 Detroit Pistons (44-38)

Congratulations to Detroit. They are the best 8^th seeded Eastern Conference team by record in a long time, and would actually be the 5^th seed in the West. Boy have times changed. Anyway, we could pick the reasons why the Clippers are going to beat Portland and insert them here. Yeah Cleveland has chemistry issues, but it’s not going to really matter. As a bonus, Reggie Jackson will struggle if guarded by Iman Shumpert, and Andre Drummond can get all the big 17-14 games he wants. LeBron’s too good.

Cavs in 5

#2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. #7 Indiana Pacers (45-37)

My upset special of the playoffs. I was down on Toronto for the regular season and they made me eat my words there, but they don’t have a true superstar (Kyle Lowry?) and I’m not sold on Dwane Casey as a head coach. I think there are some lingering issues from last year’s playoff sweep.

As for Indiana, I believe the playoffs are about big time players making big time plays, and Paul George has come back this season and shown that he can be Indiana’s franchise player. I think he has a big series here as Indiana scores the upset.

Pacers in 6

#3 Miami Heat (48-34) vs. #6 Charlotte Hornets (48-34)

I think Miami from top to bottom is just a better team than Charlotte. Kemba Walker’s emergence has bene impressive and Charlotte has a lot of role players who’ve played well this season. But when it comes down to a close game and someone needs to make some big shots, I’ll take a past his prime Dwyane Wade any day. Heck, I’d even take Goran Dragic. Championship players like Wade usually find ways to get some playoff wins. Think Paul Pierce in Brooklyn a couple years ago (or even last year with Washington).

Unless LINSANITY strikes…of course.

Heat in 7

#4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34) vs. #5 Boston Celtics (48-34)

The Hawks are a veteran team that peaked last year. None of their guys have really stepped up from last year and it feels like the entire team regressed. They kind of feel like they are here by default.

Boston’s been an exciting team ever since they got Isaiah Thomas in the middle of last year. Hell, if they didn’t run into LeBron last year I think they could have won a playoff series. Boston is 69-38 since they got Thomas. Brad Stevens also has done an amazing job coaching Boston. I think the Celtics want this one more.

Celtics in 6

Basketball

Five and Five: Was Cleveland Firing David Blatt the Right Move?

January 23, 2016 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

In perhaps the most shocking personnel move in NBA history, David Blatt was fired as Head Coach of the 30-11 Cleveland Cavaliers. And it may have been the correct move. So let’s debut what I hope will be a recurring feature at RDT World, Five and Five: Five reasons this is the correct move for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and five reasons this is a bad move for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

First, five reasons why this was the correct move for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

No 1: Blatt hasn’t found a way to integrate Kevin Love successfully after a season and a half.

What’s the deal here? Many fans have put the onus on Kevin Love here, claiming he just put up empty stats for a losing Minnesota team for a few years. And while empty stats are definitely a thing (looking at you Monta Ellis), I argue that Love was in fact a great player for Minnesota. The 2014 Minnesota Timberwolves were better than anyone remembers. They only went 40-42 in the tough Western Conference, but had a 48-34 Pythagorean W-L. This means they were unlucky by about eight games. While his raw stats were impressive (20-15, 26-13, 26-12 peak years, excellent 3P shooting) his advanced stats were also amazing (.245 WS/48, 120 offensive rating, 29% usage in 2014). He only has one (huge) flaw, which is that he’s just as bad defensively as he is good offensively. But Cleveland should have found a way to make Kevin Love work, and that’s on the Head Coach.

No 2: LeBron James didn’t like Blatt and loves Tyronne Lue.

If your superstar player doesn’t want you to be the Head Coach you’re going to have issues winning it all no matter what. A great example of this? The 2004 Los Angeles Lakers where Kobe led to the ousting of Phil Jackson. All that dysfunction is difficult to overcome. Players will often follow their leader on the court over their Head Coach when push comes to shove. Don’t forget, LeBron had basically told Blatt what do so in certain situations (like changing the play so he could hit the game winner against Chicago, and the Tristan Thompson sub controversy against Atlanta), and the team followed LeBron.

No 3: Without LeBron the Cavs were awful.

Anyone remember that stretch where LeBron sat out for a couple of weeks last season and the Cavs fell below .500? What happened there? Why is everyone around LeBron James not able to hold the fort? I understand losing LeBron is a huge piece, but a team with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving should have been able to hold the fort in the Eastern Conference.

No 4: Blatt was severely outcoached by Steve Kerr in the NBA Finals.

Maybe it’s hard to fault Blatt since he was missing Irving and Love here, but Kerr’s switch to Andre Iguodala absolutely sunk a Cleveland Cavalier team that somehow was only two games away from winning the title.

No 5: The 34 point trashing by Golden State in Cleveland last week showed how far behind the Cavs were to winning the title.

The Cavs have had two huge tests this year and failed the both. First, San Antonio outplayed them. But that’s fine, the game was moderately close. Golden State on the other hand absolutely embarrassed Cleveland on their home floor. For Cleveland right now, it’s all or nothing. Winning the East means nothing. Of course Cleveland is going to win the East. But they are going to have to beat San Antonio or Golden State and, especially in Golden State’s case, Cleveland is not in the same league as the top Western Conference title contenders. How Cleveland could not show up in such a huge regular season game was baffling.

Now, five reasons Cleveland made a mistake.

No 1: The Cavs are currently 30-11 on top of the Eastern Conference.

Without Kyrie Irving for most of the season no less! They are on pace for a 60-22 season. LeBron is great, but the Cavs have improved from last season (they’d only need to go 23-18 the rest of the way to match last year’s record). Cleveland has had a couple new pieces too that integrated nicely (like Mo Williams). I mean how many teams even with great players go 30-11 for the first half?

No 2: The Cavs beat the Thunder and the Clippers.

They beat the other two Western Conference contenders this season and in the Clippers case, it was a good win. They were close in San Antonio. The Cavs seem like they can hang with the top teams at least and are capable of beating them. I get that Golden State has their number, but Golden State is just in another world right now.

No 3: Blatt has an 83-40 regular season record and a 14-6 playoff record.

Sure he has a great team, but it’s not like the Cavs lost big games they should have won. The promptly took care of business in the Eastern Conference last season and it was a bit of an upset that they took Golden State to six after losing Kyrie Irving. Even if Blatt wasn’t the best Head Coach and LeBron was amazing, it was clearly a combination that could have won the NBA Title last year. 83-40 is pretty good for a team that was slapped together. Remember, Erik Spoelstra didn’t win the title in the first LeBron year either…and they weren’t guaranteed anything after that either. What if Tyronne Lue is worse?

No 4: We don’t know what Tyronne Lue brings to the table.

All we know is players went to him most of the time and that he’s LeBron’s guy. Should we be placating LeBron? Remember, Doug Collins was Michael Jordan’s guy…then he got fired, Phil Jackson became Head Coach and the Bulls won a bunch of NBA Titles. If Cleveland did this just to placate LeBron and keep him in Cleveland I understand, but there’s a serious risk in regards to a coaching change this late in the season. The best case scenario is that the players play really hard for Lue because they like him. The worst case is that players are forced to learn new things in January and it messes up the team. And if Cleveland falls short…what happens then?

No 5: David Blatt was Dan Gilbert’s guy.

It’s being reported that Tyronne Lue is going to be the guy who “gets on his stars” and holds all players accountable, something Blatt apparently didn’t do. Blatt probably didn’t do this because Gilbert doesn’t want LeBron or even Irving to leave Cleveland. What if Lue gets on his stars and his stars end up not playing well? Can LeBron and Love take criticism? And is Gilbert happy that LeBron’s guy is now the Head Coach?

To be honest, I like the reasons to fire him more. If the Head Coach isn’t doing his job well, then he has to go. The Cleveland Cavaliers want to win the NBA Title now and any distractions need to go. They’re winning the East for sure. They just need to find a formula to beat the Spurs or Warriors and it didn’t seem like David Blatt had that answer.

Basketball

NBA Predictions 15-16

October 27, 2015 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

It’s almost time for another season of NBA basketball. The Pre-Season is usually the last time fans can have a realistic outlook for how their team will perform. While the NBA has traditionally lacked parity, several roster changes and several young stars making the leap allowed a Final Four involving four teams that hadn’t made a Final Four in years (Cleveland last made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2009 thanks to the return of LeBron, Atlanta has to go back to 1970 before they were that close to the Finals, Golden State’s last Conference Finals was way back in 1976, and the emergence of Stephen Curry was a big reason why, and Houston last got to the WCF in 1997, led by the emerging James Harden). Once again the off-season had big pieces moving all around. That, combined with the emergence of some new stars (read: Anthony Davis) plus the return of some others (Kevin Durant) makes this another unpredictable NBA season…

Right?

Atlantic Division
Celtics: 46-36 (5)
Nets: 35-47
Raptors: 34-48
Knicks 32-50
76ers: 21-61

I swear each year this division gets worse and worse. There are two intriguing teams here. First we have who I predict will win the division, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics honestly are primed for another dynasty with a bunch of Brooklyn Nets picks and even a Dallas Mavericks 1^st too. Isaiah Thomas’ trade to Boston last year led to a 21-4 season finish and a playoff berth. Adding David Lee will only help the offense. The Raptors had made the playoffs two straight years and bring back potentially a more dangerous team than the last two years (adding DeMarre Carroll) but there was a lot of doubt in Coach Dwane Casey after a disappointing playoff exit and I think the Raptors go downhill until there’s a switch. The Nets are a mess, the Knicks need a huge Carmelo year and really I think they’re going to trade him anyway as he got his money, and the 76ers are like a PS2 Madden Franchise hoarding picks all over the place. Problem is, unlike Madden, those picks haven’t been guaranteed to be anything yet.

Central Division
Bulls: 54-28 (1)
Cavaliers: 52-30 (2)
Pacers: 44-38 (7)
Bucks: 38-44 (8)
Pistons: 35-47

Derrick Rose problems aside, I think the Bulls will improve from the coaching switch. Tom Thibodeau tired players throughout the season and played a defensive heavy system. Fred Hoiberg should open up the offense and rest guys appropriately. It’s like the poor man’s version of The Warriors switching from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr last season. I expect Jimmy Butler to have a huge season as well. The only thing that will derail the Bulls will be if Rose and Butler have issues. The Cavs are the Cavs…which is a great thing for them. Irving’s injuries and the need to rest LeBron a bit will cost them some wins, but at this point it’s clear it doesn’t really matter as long as LeBron is good for the playoffs. The Pacers lost tons of pieces and even added Monta Ellis, but Paul George returning should be enough for 44 wins in the East, even if he plays the 4. The Bucks might be better than 38-44, but I think adding Greg Monroe will clog the pain and actually add problems for Jabari Parker. As long as Reggie Jackson starts at point guard for Detriot, the longer they’ll be stuck in mediocrity unless Andre Drummond goes off (and don’t rule that out).

Southeast Division
Heat: 49-33 (3)
Hawks: 48-34 (4)
Wizards: 45-37 (6)
Hornets: 35-47
Magic: 29-53

Miami should be able to reach the expectations they had last year post-LeBron. As long as Hassan Whiteside wasn’t a fluke, Chris Bosh is healthy, Dwyane Wade realizes he’s not who he once was and Goran Dragic gets to play his game they should be good. The Hawks lost Carroll but should be fine. 60 wins was a bit on the luck side last year. Washington has yet to tell me why they’ll be improving, and losing a veteran like Paul Pierce is only going to hurt. Could John Wall and Bradley Beal bring their games to the next level? Maybe, but I think they both actually have limited upsides and we’re close to them already. The Hornets would be a lot worse if they weren’t in the East. Orlando has a lot of young talent but has a long ways to go.

Northwest Division
Thunder: 51-31 (5)
Utah Jazz: 44-38 (8)
Trail Blazers: 31-51
Nuggets: 29-53
Timberwolves: 18-64

Of course, the return of a healthy Kevin Durant will be a huge deal, and Russell Westbrook played like a MVP candidate last year, but I sense that won’t work out too great here. 51-31 isn’t a bad record, but all the fears fans had in the past about Westbrook taking too many shots and Durant not taking enough will manifest this season now that Westbrook experienced the year he had last year. Yes Westbrook led the league in scoring last year. Yes he was ridiculous. But he’s not Kevin Durant. The Thunder have serious depth problems with Dion Waiters potentially in a starting role as well. My pick for the young team to improve is Utah. The Stifle Tower and Derrick Favors were pretty good last year. They were 19-10 after the All-Star Break. I think Damian Lillard is a dark horse for leading the league in scoring this year…to go along with 40% shooting. Denver’s pretty much a mess and will probably trade off all of their pieces, and Minnesota needs a couple of years still.

Pacific Division
Clippers: 62-20 (1)
Warriors: 59-23 (3)
Suns: 33-49
Kings: 33-49
Lakers: 30-52

My big prediction: this is the year the Clippers have a dominant regular season, and Chris Paul actually wins his first MVP trophy. When Stephen Curry (rightfully) won the ’15 MVP with a 23-7, that opened up the doors for someone like Paul. Golden State will be right there of course, unless Curry gets hurt. The Suns added Tyson Chandler, which made little sense at Phoenix is a team that needs to rebuild and won’t be contending. I see more George Karl-DeMarcus Cousins problems in Sacramento. Let’s be honest, the Lakers need to rebuild at this point. I think D’Angelo Russell is my Rookie of the Year pick though, unless Kobe never lets him touch the ball.

Southwest Division
Rockets: 60-22 (2)
Spurs: 52-30 (4)
Grizzlies: 48-34 (6)
Pelicans: 45-37 (7)
Mavericks: 38-44

James Harden should only get better (and he was actually my MVP pick last year) and Dwight Howard has somehow become underrated. The Ty Lawson upgrade, as long as his head is on straight, is going to be huge for Houston. Everyone seems to think the Spurs are going to control the league with LaMarcus Aldridge joining, but in reality it’s going to take some time for him to get used to the Spurs system after being the go to in Portland. Still…I think it works out by April. The Grizzlies are the same team they are every year. Anthony Davis is amazing, but the reality is his team is awful around him and guys like Tyreke Evans only looked better last year because of Davis’ presence. Davis is going to be in that Davis Robinson position for a while. As much as I love Dirk Nowitzki…Dallas just lost too much with Chandler and who knows what Chandler Parsons will be like this year.

But I did mention that I think the Spurs figure it out by April, and when they do they’ll get through this as tough as ever West and defeat Cleveland to win the franchise’s sixth Championship.

Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

April 18, 2015 rdtworldofsport@gmail.com

We’ve just completed one of the better seasons in NBA storylines. For the first time in what seems like a while, the NBA Playoffs are moderately unpredictable. There are two teams in the East with a realistic chance of making the Finals, then any one of five (sorry Portland) can do the same. I could even think of conceivable longshot scenarios for the remaining three teams in the West. We’ve had MVP caliber seasons from four different players (Westbrook, Harden, Curry and Davis), and a semi-MVP season (from LeBron). It’s going to be a fun playoffs and we’re just going to dive into round 1 here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)

It’s really hard to make the case for the Pelicans here. Let’s try. Anthony Davis is ridiculous. Anthony Davis is incredible. Anthony Davis is a once in a lifetime talent. Anthony Davis carried a team with three inefficient overrated players (Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday) to the 8^th seed in a loaded Western Conference. And his team beat out a team with the possessed Russell Westbrook to get that spot. It’s quite impressive. Davis just put up a PER that’s only been surpassed by Wilt, Jordan and LeBron. Unfortunately, because of his supporting cast he may just be in a similar situation as David Robinson in the early-90s.

The Warriors are too deep and too good at everything. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson just destroyed the league from the guard positions. Curry, the likely MVP of the league, was the only player this season to boast a WS/48 that was higher than Davis’ this year. The Warriors are also the best defensive team in the league, thanks to Andrew Bogut (fun fact: I knew right there that Bogut for Monta Ellis a few seasons ago was an absolutely steal for the Warriors) and Draymond Green. The Warriors are so good they willing bench David Lee, someone who could still be a 17-9 guy in the league. Then there is this gem from Bill Simmons: The Warriors are one of seven teams to have a .800 winning percentage and a points differential of plus-10. The other six? ’71 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92 Bulls, ’96 Bulls, ’97 Bulls and ’08 Celtics. Two points to note from that. One: That’s three Michael Jordan teams, which is ridiculous. And two: all six of those teams won the title. All of them. It’s going to be hard to not pick the Warriors here.

Davis is worth a win with some crazy 35-17-6-3-3 game or something. But Golden State just isn’t losing here.

Warriors in 5

#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

A very interesting match-up that is a lot closer than it seems.

There are some interesting parallels here. Both the Rockets and Mavericks made controversial mid-season moves, and neither really worked out. Rajon Rondo has feuded with Rick Carlisle and hasn’t fit in with Monta Ellis in the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Smith brought his normal inefficient offense to Houston and didn’t provide the help the injured Dwight Howard and James Harden needed. Both teams have a defensive monster at center…Howard for Houston and Tyson Chandler for Dallas, although one of those isn’t as good as he once was. Both Carlisle and Kevin McHale, the two head coaches, were Celtics. Both teams are from Texas. Ok I’m nitpicking now.

Here’s the thing. The James Harden-led Rockets have yet to win a playoff series. The main pieces of the Mavericks: Carlisle as a coach, Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler have all won the title before, and three of those did it in Dallas. Dallas proved to be a tough out (the only one) last year against San Antonio because they have guys who knows that it takes to get the job done in the playoffs.

When you really look at it, how do the Rockets win this series? They are virtually a one man offensive team. The Mavericks are built to stop those types of teams with Chandler in the middle. Dallas played Houston very tough this season as well: Houston won on the road by 7 and at home by 5 and 3. Dallas won one game in Dallas by 11. If Nowitzki gets into his prime form, and Ellis doesn’t shoot them out of games, I don’t know if Houston can contain Dallas.

The problem is Nowitzki regress enough this season to cause concern about taking over a playoff series. I don’t believe in Monta Ellis, and I still don’t see the Rondo fit. Chandler will cause all kinds of problems for Harden, but I don’t think Dallas will be able to pull it out. If this was last year’s Nowitzki, I’d pick them.

Rockets in 7.

#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. #6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Poor Chris Paul. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this script before. Gregg Popovich just knows how to create defensive schemes that limit Paul. In 2008 the Spurs beat Paul’s great Hornets team in a New Orleans. In 2012 the Spurs swept Paul’s Clippers. This is one of those I need to see it happen situations before I can take the Clippers.

The other part of this equation: the Spurs are basketball’s best team this last one-eighth of the season. The ageless Tim Duncan has been on top of his game. Kawhi Leonard is an elite defender…basically the new age Bruce Bowen only with a crazy offensive game to go with it…and perhaps a top 20 player in the league right now. Tony Parker is peaking. Everything is going right for the Spurs.

Maybe this is poor analysis, but I need to see it from the Clippers before I pick them against San Antonio. Great Chris Paul and Blake Griffin seasons be damned.

Spurs in 6

#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

Portland just hasn’t been the same since LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his hand and Wes Mathews was out for the season. Portland is merely 19-19 in their last 38 games and only got the 4^th seed due to the NBA’s weird seeding rules for division champs.

It doesn’t help Portland that the Grizzlies are one of the toughest defense teams out there. Marc Gasol is a former defensive player of the year, Tony Allen is always a threat to win the award and Mike Conley is as tough as he comes. There’s the general overall toughness of Zach Randolph too.

Portland is just trending downward. Memphis is just a tough team to beat and Portland’s injuries just makes this way too tough. Damian Lillard needs to have the series of his life for Portland to have chance here. Memphis has home court too, although that won’t even come into play here.

Grizzles in 4.

Eastern Conference

#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22) vs. #8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)

The Nets are the sneaky hot team that might get some “upset special” calls. I thought that a bit too, but then that meant I was relying on Deron Williams (washed up at 30 apparently, overrated to begin with), Joe Johnson (anyone notice the Hawks have had a great run since Johnson left them?) and Brook Lopez (always a threat to go back to a good offensive player who somehow can’t rebound despite being 7 foot). The Nets are the 2004 New York Knicks. Congrats.

I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, and I think they may be one of the worst 60 win teams ever, but I can get into that when they are playing the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Until then, let’s just go with the obvious and take the Hawks here.

Hawks in 4.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42)

Another easy call here. The Celtics have been super hot and 29-12 in the last half of the season. Isaiah Thomas has been a key asset and the Celtics are just gelling. Brad Stevens has proven to be a great coach.

The Cavs started 19-20. They are 34-10 since. LeBron is in near peak form, which really might be better than anyone else in the league still. Kyrie Irving has improved leaps and bounds. Kevin Love, while not at the level he once was, actually had a good season that no one realizes. Mozgov, Shumpert and JR have been great pieces.

I’ll give Boston one because Thomas might have a nice 30 pointer in there. But…yeah, not yet Boston. Not yet.

Cavs in 5

#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32) vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)

Jason Kidd deserves something for bringing the Bucks to the playoffs. But I mean, this should be as obvious as the other two series we’ve covered so far.

Sure the Bucks will play it tough. But they just don’t have the talent. Michael-Carter Williams is a fun…but probably bad player. Is The Greak Freak ready to have the series of his life? Even so, that may not be enough.

I expect the Bulls to really be tough this year. Pau Gasol provides that Championship experience. Mirotic is a great bench piece. Jimmy Butler is the best player on this team and is probably the front runner for Most Improved Player of the Year. The Bulls don’t need the old Derrick Rose to beat these Bucks.

Bulls in 5

#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36)

Paul Pierce gets to face the Raptors again in round 1!

No one outside of Toronto or Washington cares about this series. The Raptors are 12-16 in their last 28. The Wizards are 13-15 in their last 28. Not inspiring here. John Wall went from fun young player to overrated (as did Bradley Beal, really). Kyle Lowry went from underrated to irrelevant. For DeMar DeRozan, see Beal. The only player I really trust on either of these teams is Paul Pierce, which is pretty telling (I actually like Jonas as well for Toronto, so I’m lying here).

I’ll pick the Wizards though, because they have some playoff experience under their belt…they almost made the Conference Finals last year afterall…and Paul Pierce is the type of veteran that can help here. The Wizards are the best of the rest of the East (outside of the top 3), but that doesn’t mean they are any good. To be honest, it doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with.

But I need a reason to believe in Toronto and I don’t have one. At least I have one with Washington.

Wizards in 6

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