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Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: The Conference Finals

Woo I made it before Game 1 tonight!

First question I have to ask, why the heck is Warriors-Rockets the first series starting? Cleveland and Atlanta were done for what seems like weeks ago. Why should Houston have to just come back in two days?

Anyway, I posted my predictions on Twitter again in case I was late, but I’m not late this time! Then Grantland’s Zach Lowe copied me! (Or has no idea what RDTWorldofSport is, I give it a 50-50 chance).

An interesting tidbit about these Conference Finals: while the NBA is the most anti-parity league in basketball (we have a #1 seed against a #2 on each side, for example) this is the first playoffs in what feels like forever where none of these four teams really felt like true Championship contenders before the season began, other than possibly Cleveland. LeBron’s return to the Cavs got them here, fine. But the Hawks? Where did that come from? The Rockets looked like a two man team without enough depth to make it far, and it looked like they were who we thought they were until Josh Smith decided to realize his potential ten years into his career for a quarter and a half and led the Rockets to a stunning Game 6 comeback. The Warriors were a fun team to pick, but fun usually means “really good team that gets beat by the Spurs in the playoffs”. Instead, Stephen Curry owned the league, Klay Thompson made the rumors he’d be traded for Kevin Love look foolish and Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green led a great defense to create the clear title favorite at this point. Just some crazy stuff.

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers @ #1 Atlanta Hawks

How the Cavs got here: Well, they convinced LeBron to come home. They got pretty lucky with #1 Overall picks, hitting Kyrie Irving in 2012, missing on Anthony Bennett and nailing Andrew Wiggins. They sent Wiggins and Bennett to Minnesota for Love, and while Love actually had a good (not by his standards) season, it’s debatable whether that’s been a good idea long term. They also got Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert at the trade deadline, giving the Cavs decent depth. Obviously they key has been LeBron.

How the Hawks got here: To be honest, I have no idea. Kyle Korver was dealt to Atlanta a few years ago for cash. Paul Millsap had always been pretty underrated but a solid hand that Utah didn’t bother with and let walk. Al Horford was the #3 Overall pick right behind Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. Jeff Teague was another Hawks draft pick who upped his percentages enough to go from an average player at best to good player. DeMarre Carrol is a former late 1st round pick of Memphis who bounced around before finally finding a place in Atlanta.

The Hawks are probably the worst 60 win NBA team in the history of the league. Unsurprisingly, they fell apart down the stretch after a really hot start. Brooklyn was a mess themselves and yet put up a fight, Washington was a secretly a mess themselves, only Toronto was in worse shape so suddenly they looked a lot better than they were (I picked Atlanta in 4 there, but I wasn’t underrating Washington, I was overrating Atlanta). This a poor man’s Spurs’ team at best and I still have no reason to believe in them.

You know who I believe in? LeBron James. I’ve still yet to see a reason why a LeBron lead team won’t win the East. Sure, he’s not the LeBron of a few years ago, but he’s still the best player in the league. And he has enough weapons around him in Smith and Irving to make sure the Cavs can score enough. Yeah, the Hawks probably win Game 1 and go up 2-1, but we know the story by now.

Cavs in 6

Western Conference Finals

#2 Houston Rockets @ #1 Golden State Warriors

How the Rockets got here: Stockpiling assets and landing deals for stars! That’s how James Harden and Dwight Howard got here. Then, take a chance on some troubled stars, like Josh Smith. Then, some of your younger guys work out, like Terrence Jones, and you’re good! Remember, the Rockets got very little for the Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady departures, yet it hasn’t mattered one bit.

How the Warriors got here: Landed Stephen Curry #7 in the 2009 NBA Draft. PGs taken higher: Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio. The secretly great Andrew Bogut-Monta Ellis trade. Landing Klay Thompson at #11 in the 2011 NBA Draft, right after Jimmer Fredette and Kemba Walker were selected. Finding Draymond Green in the 2nd round in 2012.

The Rockets are obviously lucky to be here. After their shocking Game 6 victory that justified the Josh Smith signing and a solid Game 7 win, they now face a team that hasn’t slowed down one bit. The Warriors, unlike the Hawks, have decisively taken care of business in each of their two series thus far. The Pelicans bring Anthony Davis to take on the Warriors, no problem, Warriors sweep. Memphis gives Golden State a tough time early on, Coach Steve Kerr makes the adjustment regarding Tony Allen Golden State cruises to three straight victories.

There’s really no reason to think Golden State isn’t the far better team here. Can’t wait to see Jason Terry chase Curry around for 30 minutes a night. Patrick Beverly would have been a great help.

Harden probably gets one 10 for 28 with 20 free throw games made in their to steal one.

Warriors in 5

Basketball

NBA “Midseason” Award Winners

               It’s the main event of NBA’s unofficial midseason: the All-Star Game. All-Star Weekend itself often has tons of storylines. For example, who were the biggest snubs? At first it looked like it would be Damian Lillard and DeMarcus Cousins, but both for in due to injuries from other players. After Dirk Nowitzki (who is still having a good season, but has slipped a bit) got in, my thought now is that DeAndre Jordan is actually the biggest snub left. He’s been having a Tyson Chandler like season, only he’s a much better rebounder than Chandler ever was. His presence in the middle really might make a difference in April…unless these first 54 games from him was just a fluke. Other storylines involved a stacked three point contest (won by Stephen Curry) and Zach LaVine leaving Dr. J’s jaw on the ground after one of his dunks. It’s been a fun All-Star Weekend for sure.

               Now that we’re at the “midseason”, it’s time to see who our front runners are for the regular season awards.

Most Improved Player

Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose
Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose

Jimmy Butler, SF Bulls

               Normally I’d be all “of course it’s Jimmy Butler, who else could it be?!”, but Klay Thompson could easily win this award as well. I have to give the edge to Butler though, because this season he’s shown to be someone we didn’t know he could be. We knew Thompson was a very good shooter at least. I mean the Warriors wouldn’t part ways with him for Kevin Love (a genius move, I was sure wrong about that one) and he and Curry already had the “Splash Bros.” nickname going. But we already knew Thompson was good. Yes he’s even a better shooter than we thought, and yes he’s improved on defense quite a bit. And yes, he did score 37 points in one quarter.

               But what did we really think of Butler before this season? He was an okay to good (depending on the night) wing that wasn’t a difference maker of any kind. The Bulls spent all summer trying to land Carmelo Anthony. Butler shot under 40% last season with 13 PPG and 5 RPG. Not really inspiring stuff. He had a PER of 13.5 (below average), a WS48 of .131 (solid rotation guy) and an offensive rating of 108 on 17% usage (good roleplayer). This year? 46% shooting, 20.4 PPG, 6 RPG, PER of 21.3, 123 ORtg on 21.5% usage. Those are some crazy jumps. He’s doing all this without an effective Derrick Rose no less. And Bulls fans don’t really seem to be talking about Carmelo anymore.

Sixth Man of the Year

Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East
Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East

Lou Williams, SG, Raptors

This comes down to three players for me so far. Williams, Jamal Crawford and Isaiah Thomas. I should probably rule out Crawford as this has been his worst LA Clipper year so far. He’s not quite the offensive sparkplug he was even last year, and if he’s not going to be a very good offensive guy then his horrid defense becomes a bigger problem. I’m in on Williams as he’s been part of a team that hasn’t had any chemistry problems since adding him and Toronto’s been near the top of the East for the entire year. Thomas and Williams are pretty close to the same player statwise (Thomas has a small edge), but trade rumors have been abundant in Phoenix ever since the idea of playing three guards came about. Sure, Goran Dragic’s contract is up soon, but you don’t see the Suns actively trying to keep him either.

Rookie of the Year

Wiggins looks like the real deal
Wiggins looks like the real deal

Andrew Wiggins, SG, Timberwolves

He started slow…played Cleveland in December and caught fire ever since. Since that game against Cleveland on 12/23, he’s averaged 18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.5 APG and only 1.9 TPG on nearly 47% shooting. And he didn’t have Ricky Rubio for most of it. That’s….pretty good. Once Jabari Parker went down all Wiggins had to do was play well to win the award…and he has.

Defensive Player of the Year

Green has led the best defense in the NBA
Green has led the best defense in the NBA

Draymond Green, SF, Warriors

It’s not every day that a swingman has the lowest defensive rating in the league, but when one does it would be pretty hard for him not to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Warriors boast the best defensive team in basketball despite playing in the loaded West with an offensive first point guard in a point guard heavy league. Green manages to guard three different spots on the court effectively. Paul Millsap would be my 2nd choice here, followed by Anthony Davis.

Coach of the Year

No one had the Hawks at 43-11
No one had the Hawks at 43-11

Mike Budenholzer, Hawks

Yeah, I don’t even think the city of Atlanta had the Hawks winning 43 games by the All-Star break. In fact, 43 games total was a realistic total. Another Gregg Popovich assistant of course. Budenholzer has some competition though. Steve Kerr of course deserves credit for taking the Warriors to the next level, and Jason Kidd went from the ousted laughing stock rookie head coach of the Nets to somehow having the Bucks…without Jabari Parker…in the midst of the playoffs.

               Still though, the Hawks are 43-11. What?

Most Valuable Player

Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with
Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with

James Harden, SG, Rockets

There are four cases to make for the MVP this season so far: Harden, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Let’s start with Curry, as to be him and Harden are 1a and 1b here. Curry has obviously been stupid good this seas. He’s shooting lights out (48-40-90%), he’s distributing the ball (7.9 APG), he’s leading the league in steals (2.2). He has a great MVP level WS/48 this season (.283, tied for the 18th highest in the 3 point shooting era with Shaq’s 2000 season). He’s on the best team in the toughest conference. So why didn’t I pick him? Harden’s close to him in most of these #s, better in some advanced metrics and is clearly working with a hell of a lot less. Curry has Thompson, Green, even Kerr as a coach. Harden has a banged up Dwight Howard who isn’t Dwight Howard anymore, Josh Smith who even when he is Josh Smith it’s not guaranteed it’s a good thing.

LeBron’s case seems dubious as this is arguably his worst season since his rookie year. But then you see the following:

Cavs With LeBron: 31-14

Cavs Without LeBron: 2-8

               That’s a big difference. I won’t count him out as if he has a monster last 27 games where the Cavs win 22 or 23 of them, voters will notice and forget about November and December.

               Anthony Davis’s case is insane. Despite what we mentioned about Curry’s WS/48…Davis actually has a higher one of .291 right now. That would be good for 12th in the 3 Point era. Only players above him? Lebron (’13, ’09, ’10, ’12), Jordan (’91, ’96, ’88, ’89), David Robinson (’94), Durant (’14), and Chris Paul (’09). That’s the list. It’s interesting to look at Robinson when thinking about Davis here. He too put up a lot of “holy shit” stats. But he only brought home one MVP as his teams were never really the best. In this case, the 27-26 Pelicans have to be better for Davis to win the MVP. Even if he has a record breaking PER. Yeah, it’s amazing that a team with Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon (three black hole All-Stars for sure) as their 2, 3 and 4 scorers is even remotely in the Western Conference playoff hunt. But that’s not enough.

               So James Harden. He too has a ridiculous WS/48 (.275). He actually has the highest offensive win shares of anyone in the league. He’s carrying this Rockets team. Dwight Howard isn’t a great player anymore. He’s on a team where only two guys have higher than a 16 PER (him and Howard). Yet this team is 36-17. He’s leading the league in scoring. He’s averaging a 27-6-7 with 2 steals a game. He is your MVP.